660
FXUS62 KILM 260506
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
106 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. Two
cold fronts will move into the region on Thursday and Monday
bringing increased chances of thunderstorms. Hot temperatures
will cool back to normal early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Observed low clouds, convective debris clouds, and ongoing
light mixing may hinder the development of widespread fog
previously forecast. Although, confidence is still low given the
favorable environment in place, especially inland. Have
maintained some areas of fog across the inland areas with higher
dew points and temperatures along the coast likely creating
patchy coverage, but this has been decreased slightly from
earlier updates in areas where satellite and surface obs show
low clouds developing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As a surface front washed out today, the onshore flow this
morning was enhanced by outflow from offshore convection. The
low-level moisture and outflow have provided more cloud cover
than anticipated. Isolated convection has just formed in the
past hour in southern Georgetown. The convection is expected to
remain isolated through the evening.

Overnight, isolated fog is possible toward sunrise. Wednesday
will be another hot day, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper
90s inland and lower 90s at the coast. The heat indices will
again reach into the lower 100s on Wednesday afternoon and will
be close to heat advisory conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Hot and humid conditions continue, with low temps in the mid
70s and forecasted highs Thursday afternoon in the upper 90s
(away from the coast). Increased variability in the afternoon
temps is likely as lingering front inland, sea breeze, and an
upper shortwave passage combine to bring scattered convection to
the area into the evening hours Thursday. No severe weather
concerns at this time given minimal shear - however slow storm
motions (less than 10 kts) could lead to isolated pockets of
heavy rain accumulations. Depending on cloud and storm coverage,
most areas will likely see heat indices in the triple digits
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Extended period of above normal temperatures and elevated
humidity will continue through Sunday, with heat advisories
possible each day (heat indices >=105F). Diurnal storms possible
Friday and Saturday with afternoon sea breeze and Piedmont
trough, although weak upper ridge nearby and some dry air aloft
will limit coverage both days. An upper trough passing well to
the north Sunday will weaken the ridge, with guidance showing
PWATs increasing to over 2" Sunday into Sunday night. Typical
daytime convection Sunday with continued chances into Monday as
a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. Temperatures
may drop to near normal for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stratus developing inland this morning in the wake of
convective outflow. Have decreased the coverage of morning fog
due to light winds, debris clouds, and the recent development of
stratus. Still expect inland areas to have some VIS
restrictions, with a better chance of low stratus (primarily IFR
near sunrise). Along the coast, MVFR is likely in onshore flow
and convective debris clouds.

VFR for the rest of the day after 13Z. Isolated showers and
storms very similar to yesterday, primarily in coastal SC.

Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty
morning low clouds/fog. Thursday afternoon and evening has the
highest potential for convection affecting local airports.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Over the next 24 hours, we can expect a
shift in wind direction as high pressure attempts to build back
west over the coast waters. The northeast winds this afternoon
will gradually veer to the south by Wednesday. Wind speeds will
maintain a steady 10 knots overnight but will pick up to 10 to
13 knots by Wednesday afternoon. As for the seas, we anticipate
a slow subsiding from 3 to 4 feet to 3 feet by Wednesday.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Southerly flow around
Bermuda high dominates the coastal waters Wednesday night into
the weekend, with brief backing to southeasterly Saturday. Wind
speeds 10-15 kts Wednesday night and Thursday, with gusts around
20 kts Wed night, lower to around 10 kts Friday and Saturday.
Seas around 3 ft Wed night and Thursday lowers to 2-3 ft Friday
into the weekend, mix of S wind wave and a 2-3 ft 9 sec SE
swell. Best chance for thunderstorms over the coastal waters
will come Thursday evening into overnight hours as an upper
level trough moves across the area, with widely scattered
overnight convection every other night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...21
MARINE...VAO/RH