Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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480 FXUS62 KILM 242343 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 743 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moving into the area will bring thunderstorms to the area this evening. This front will dissipate over the area on Wednesday. Conditions will be hot and humid through the weekend. A second front will move across the region on Thursday bring a good chance of thunderstorms. A third front will move into the area by Sunday and this will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region on Monday. && .UPDATE... The hottest day of the year (so far) yielded 100 degree temperatures in Florence tying a daily record from 2015, and 99 degrees in Wilmington breaking a daily record from 2010. Moderate to large instability with CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg has developed ahead of a weak front dropping southward. An earlier severe thunderstorm across New Hanover and Pender counties produced multiple reports of quarter size hail and strong winds. This threat may continue a bit longer before activity weakens and shifts southward and offshore. After collaboration with SPC I`ve extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch an additional hour until 9 PM for Brunswick and New Hanover counties plus the coastal waters. Forecast PoPs through the remainder of the evening hours are highest across New Hanover and Brunswick counties (60-70 percent) with 30-60 percent chances across the Pee Dee region and Grand Strand. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold front looks to have hung up to our west with this convection mostly due to a shortwave aloft, some drier air pushing in, and just a generally unstable atmosphere due to temps/dewpoints. The dry air is sequestering most of the activity which is expected to shift towards the coast by midnight as the actual front moves through. Lows will be tricky again tonight but hopefully not as warm as yesterday as it looks like the boundary sticks to the coast overnight. Clouds may be possible along the coast but unsure about fog inland due to the modest rainfall totals we`re seeing currently. Tomorrow the front will lift back to the north. Have cooler conditions near the coast with warmer temps inland. Isolated convection is possible during the afternoon primarily near the coast and in NE SC. No severe weather is expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An old front will shift northward over the forecast area on Tuesday evening and dissipate by Wednesday morning. In the upper levels, a weak high will develop on Wednesday before a mid-level trough shifts into the Carolinas. Hot and humid conditions will continue with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the upper 90 inland and lower 90s on the coast. Lows will range between 72 and 75 degrees. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The next best chance of precipitation is Thursday as a surface front moves into our region and dissipates on Friday. A second surface front moves to the coast Sunday night, and another good chance for thunderstorms will help with the current rain deficit. Hot and muggy conditions will continue with a slight cool down on Monday. Highs in the mid-90s inland are expected Thursday through Sunday and lower 90s by Monday. Heat advisory conditions are possible each afternoon between Thursday and Sunday, but we`re keeping a close eye on it. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak cold front dipping southward across the Carolinas is responsible for ongoing clusters of thunderstorms. Inland convective shower activity across the KFLO airport should dissipate by 02z, however along the coast heavier thunderstorms have a high potential to bring airport weather impacts, especially at KILM now through 03z where gusty winds and IFR visibility in heavy rain are expected. There is a moderate to high potential for MVFR or brief IFR impacts at KMYR and KCRE through 04z. After 04z, convection should weaken significantly over land but may remain active across the ocean overnight as the front dips south. There is a low to moderate potential for MVFR visibility in ground fog at KFLO and KLBT late tonight, mainly in the 08-12z timeframe. Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning low clouds/fog. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday, Small Craft Conditions linger in our NC waters primarily due to seas. Isolated strong storms are possible over the waters this evening ahead of a front. Conditions should start to improve as the front reaches the coast late tonight before lifting back north through Tuesday. Winds will turn to the ESE near 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 ft. Tuesday Night through Saturday, Winds from the southeast to southwest through most of the forecast period, with winds generally around 10 knots. Seas will range between 2 and 3 feet. No advisories are expected. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...TRA MARINE...ILM