849
FXUS62 KILM 300601
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
201 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure will continue to dominate our weather
through the weekend. A cold front will bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms from late Sunday into Monday.
Relatively cooler and drier conditions will arrive behind the
front on Tuesday with warmer and more humid air returning
gradually through the end of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes necessary from the ongoing forecast with this
update. Mainly clear skies and light south winds continue amidst
a warm and muggy airmass. Shallow fog may develop around dawn in
areas where winds go light or calm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Pop up convection is primarily over NE SC at this time. With the
absence of any steering flow most cells are slow moving and
dropping decent rainfall, but coverage is isolated to scattered
at best. Rainfall totals are mostly a third to a half inch with
localized totals near 1 inch according to the radar. Tonight
should dry out but there could be the threat of patchy fog and
low stratus towards Sunday morning. These should burn off after
sunrise with a hot steamy day expected Sunday due to pre-frontal
warming. The entire area is expected to reach heat advisory
criteria with heat indices 105-109 deg. How warm we get exactly
will depend on timing of the convection. The threat for severe
weather will increase towards the late afternoon and into the
evening with the area in a Marginal (threat 1 of 5) risk,
primarily due to damaging wind gusts from downbursts/outflow.
PWATs in excess of 2.5" with a deep, warm cloud layer could also
lead to the threat of localized flooding as there won`t be much
in ways of storm motion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weather elements come together Sunday night through most of the
day Monday leading to likely to categorical pops for most of
this time. It appears via high resolution and to an extent
global models the best forcing occurs a couple of hours either
side of 12 UTC Monday. By later Monday night through the day
Tuesday the front and pops shift to the south. As for severe
weather all areas remain in Marginal Risk but with the timing of
the best forcing early in the morning the threat has probably
decreased slightly.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes to the extended forecast with dry
weather expected for Wednesday and most of the day Thursday with
lower temperatures and dewpoints along with it. The reprieve
doesn`t last long with mid summertime conditions consisting of
higher temperatures and dewpoints along with an increase in
pops.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
remainder of the night, except for passing MVFR stratocu along
the coastal terminals. Given similar conditions to last night,
opted to include a TEMPO group at inland terminals to account
for the possibility of fog/low stratus around and soon after
dawn, with this mixing out by around 12Z if it does develop.
During the day, pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible
along and near the sea breeze for the coastal terminals while
somewhat more organized lines of showers and storms should
develop and spread southeastward into the inland terminals by
late in the afternoon. Some uncertainty still exists regarding
the coverage of storms, but I have just enough confidence to
maintain a prevailing TSRA group for those areas. Otherwise, the
loss of heating should result in a general weakening/dissipation
of convection during the evening with a period of relatively dry
conditions expected late in the 06Z TAF period.

Extended Outlook...An approaching cold front will trigger
scattered convection over Sunday night into Monday, with
periodic MVFR/IFR possible. Depending on how far south the front
reaches, brief MVFR cig or vis flight restrictions may occur at
times well into Monday night for the coastal terminals.
Otherwise, for Tuesday through Thursday, VFR should dominate.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday... Seas 2-3 ft with winds S-SW around 10 kts.
Wind speeds will increase to near 15 kts Sunday as a front
approaches. Increasing thunderstorm activity is expected to
increase over the waters towards the end of the period ahead
of a front.

Sunday Night through Thursday... Southwest winds of 10-15
knots will be in place Sunday night ahead of an approaching
cold front. Winds will shift to the northeast later Monday night
into early Tuesday and seemingly have increased in magnitude
now firmly into a range of 15-20 knots. Winds will become more
easterly in time finally ending up in a return flow later in the
week. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with a few and or more
five footers showing up late Monday into early Tuesday. Overall
still not expecting any headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased fire concerns are present across most of the area due
to low fuel moistures and current drought conditions. There are
a couple of chances of rainfall over the next week, with
potentially moderate rain late Sunday through Monday night, but
is not expected to be enough to alleviate dry conditions. While
the forecast, namely RH, remains above criteria for any NWS
products, extra caution should be used, especially with the
upcoming 4th of July Holiday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...SHK/LEW
FIRE WEATHER...