Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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310 FXUS62 KILM 262332 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 732 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. Two cold fronts will move into the region on Thursday and late Sunday bringing increased chances of thunderstorms. Hot temperatures will cool back to normal early next week. && .UPDATE... Inland thunderstorms earlier produced 40 mph wind gusts and 2.29 inches of rain near Scranton in southern Florence County, SC. These storms have dissipated, but mid and high level convective debris cloudiness will take another couple of hours to dissipate. Compared to last night, boundary layer south- southwesterly winds will be much stronger which should keep fog potential low. Humid onshore winds along the coast will bring stratocumulus clouds onshore at times, but dry weather is expected to continue. The heat advisory was allowed to expire at 7 PM. Just looking at the hourly airport observations here`s the highest heat indices observed today: Myrtle Beach 106 Florence 107 Darlington 106 Bennettsville 108 Lumberton 107 Wilmington 102 Elizabethtown 106 An interesting climate note: I`ve bumped the forecast low at North Myrtle Beach up to 80 degrees tonight. If this verifies AND if North Myrtle Beach remains 80+ degrees through midnight Thursday night, we will tie the largest number of June 80 degree daily lows in North Myrtle Beach`s history with three, last observed back in 2010. We`ve observed two such hot nights so far this month: June 22 and June 23. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Heat and humidity are driving heat index values in the interior sections of the forecast area and the Grand Strand to over 105 this afternoon. This heat is expected to abate after 6 PM. Afternoon convection is starting and is expected to be isolated in coverage. CAM models are showing the coverage to remain scattered into the early evening. It will be a warm and humid night with a southerly wind blowing overnight ahead of a cold front over the Ohio River Valley, which is expected to drop slowly into our area on Thursday. As the upper- level trough associated with the front moves over the area, a ribbon of 2" precipitable water values will be over our area during Thursday afternoon. Strong instability will provide an environment where there will be a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. Tomorrow`s combination of heat and high dew points will most likely necessitate a heat advisory. However, if convection begins earlier, this may prevent the heat indices from reaching the 105 to 109 range, potentially averting the need for an advisory. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Front moves into the area Thursday night, with not much more than a brief wind shift. Storms will be dissipating quickly early Thursday night as NVA dominates with exiting upper shortwave, with low temps in the low 70s. Front looks to wash out on Friday, with a more onshore flow Friday afternoon keeping temps a few degrees lower than Thursday though still slightly above normal in the low 90s. Dewpoints remain well in the 70s on Friday, and heat indices in the triple digits is forecasted yet again area wide. PWATS remain elevated, despite some dry air aloft, and plenty of instability will kick off scattered afternoon convection. Another night in the low to mid 70s Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. Additional heat advisories appear likely this weekend, with forecast approaching heat warning criteria (heat index >= 110F) on Sunday. Afternoon convection expected each day, with PWATs remaining at or above 2" through the weekend (and into early next week). Rain/thunderstorm chances increase a bit late Sunday into Sunday night as an upper shortwave moves through and a surface low moves across the Northeast with attending front approaching Sunday night. Temperatures "cool" a little for the start of next week to near normal as flow becomes more easterly (versus south-southwesterly). Airmass remains warm and moist and have maintained diurnal convection in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Inland thunderstorms between KFLO and KLBT have dissipated, but it will take another few hours for the convective debris mid and high clouds to dissipate. Along the coast, humid onshore wind is producing low stratocumulus clouds with bases 1500-2500 feet AGL. These could form broken ceilings at KMYR, KCRE, and KILM overnight with the most substantial impacts expected prior to 04z at the Myrtle Beach airports, then after 04z at KILM. Breezes should keep fog potential very low tonight and aside from coastal low clouds, VFR conditions are expected to continue into early Thursday afternoon. A developing area of thunderstorms should affect the inland airports KFLO and KLBT after 19z, and may approach the coast during the late afternoon hours. Extended Outlook...VFR should prevail outside of periodic MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning low clouds/fog. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...As a cold front slowly approaches the central Carolinas on Thursday, the southerly winds over the waters will veer to the southwest. Wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots are expected. Seas will run around 3 feet with a few 4 feet at 15 to 20 miles off the coast, mainly north of Little River. Thursday Night through Sunday...South-southwest winds Thursday night turn southeasterly briefly on Friday as a front drops into the area before washing out. South-southwest winds return for the weekend around ever present Bermuda high pressure. Wind speeds increase slightly heading into Sunday evening as another front approaches. Seas generally 2-3 ft Thursday night through Sunday, mix of SE swell and SSW wind wave. Best chance for thunderstorms over the coastal waters will be early Thursday night and again late Sunday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...TRA MARINE...VAO/RH