546
FXUS62 KILM 022354
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
754 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this
week. Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air
northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day. A cold front could reach
the Carolinas by Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track with passing clouds and isolated showers
mainly west of forecast area but expecting to remain isolated
with passing shortwave overnight into Mon.
Updated Aviation Discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Energy passing through the area in the mid levels of the
atmosphere could bring a few showers and storms to the area
tonight and Monday. Coverage is expected to be isolated into
tonight and isolated to scattered Monday. Lows tonight will fall
to the mid to upper 60s. Highs Monday will rise to the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Summer-like pattern in full swing with WAA and moisture
advection around offshore Bermuda high. Any lingering storms
Monday evening are expected to dissipate by midnight. A weak
upper ridge moves overhead Tuesday but not expecting much, if
any, subsidence and therefore pops are in the 30-40% range for
Tuesday afternoon for scattered diurnal storms. Highs Tuesday
around 90F and lows Monday and Tuesday nights in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Continued WAA and moisture advection through Thursday night,
with PWATs peaking near 2" Wednesday and Thursday. Dewpoints
around 68-72F both days, with above normal temperatures. Storm
chances currently around 50% during Wed and Thurs
afternoon/evening, with sea breeze and Piedmont trough providing
focus along with an upper shortwave on Thursday. An upper low
moves across the Great Lakes Thursday night and slowly moves
over the Northeast through next weekend, possibly extending down
into the Mid-Atlantic. Associated surface cyclone will also
move into the Northeast Friday, with attending cold front
forecasted to move across our area sometime Friday. Not sure how
much moisture will be available for rain chances with the
front, especially inland. Behind the front, atmosphere looks to
dry out quite a bit with some uncertainty in temperature trends
for next weekend (GFS has a notable cool down).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR for the 18Z TAF period. There is a low potential for a few
showers during the period but the potential is too low to
include in the terminals. High pressure shifting farther
offshore will help winds to shift slightly more SW into Mon, but
overall a general light S-SW flow will continue with winds
backing slightly and becoming a bit gusty Mon aftn in sea
breeze, mainly coastal terminals. Included a VCSH for LBT with
best chc of convection in the vicinity late this evening into
the overnight hours with passing shortwave.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday, becoming a
little more widespread Thursday ahead of a front. VFR expected
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Expect S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT tonight to
diminish to 10 KT or less for Monday. Seas invof 2 FT are
expected.

Monday Night through Friday...South-southwest winds persist
around offshore Bermuda high Monday night through at least early
Friday, peaking Thursday afternoon and evening as pressure
gradient tightens ahead of an approaching front. Seas around 2
feet through mid week build to 3-4 ft daytime Thursday and
Thursday night, combination of SE swell and S wind wave. A front
is forecasted to move across the area sometime on Friday, with
winds turning offshore behind it and wave heights lowering.
Storm chances basically every day this week, with best chance
overnight into early morning over the nearshore waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Climatological Spring 2024 numbers are in and record-breaking
warmth occurred at Wilmington, NC where temperature records
date back to 1874.

Wilmington recorded its warmest spring on record with an average
March-May temperature of 66.4 degrees, breaking the record of
66.3 set back in the Spring of 2012. Although high temperatures
were warm, it was exceptional warmth for overnight lows that
really helped break the record.

In North Myrtle Beach this was the second warmest spring since
records began with an average spring temperature of 65.7
degrees. 2012 remains the warmest spring on record there.

Inland at Florence, SC and Lumberton, NC, both stations recorded
their sixth warmest spring on record with average temperatures
of 66.6 and 65.3 degrees, respectively.

Detailed spring climatological data is available in the seasonal
climate summaries (CLS) text products issued yesterday afternoon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...VAO/31
CLIMATE...TRA