205
FXUS62 KILM 200600
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front and low pressure aloft will result in a
chance for showers and isolated thunderstorm today. Slightly
cooler and drier weather will accompany persistent north-
northeasterly winds from Friday through the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the north. Rain chances could return by
mid next week as moisture increases.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast with the early evening update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Scattered showers continue across the area this aftn, due to a combo
of sfc outflow boundaries and cyclonic flow aloft in conjunction
with decent deep-layer moisture. Expect the activity to wave
following the loss in daytime heating, with the main upr-level
trough axis also pulling off the coast. With today`s rainfall, light
winds, and small dewpoint depressions tonight, expect patchy to
areas of fog mainly inland, though the overall coverage remains
unclear due to the continued presence of mid-level clouds and a bit
of boundary-layer wind. Low temps in the mid 60s. Dry then for
Friday with sfc high pressure building in from the NW and the upr-
level trough offshore. Similar temps Friday as today...highs in the
low/mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet period expected with mostly dry conditions under ridging high
pressure. Some daytime instability could lead to shallow pop-up
showers Friday due to lingering low-level moisture, but these will
yield little to no rainfall as dry air remains dominant aloft. Highs
in the mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The period stays primarily dry until mid next week when moisture
from a low in the Midwest makes it around the mountains amidst
ridging high pressure. Low rain chances will then linger through the
end of the period as the high weakens. Temperatures near
seasonable. Models remain inconsistent on the potential for a
tropical system at the end of the period, but this will be
monitored as the forecast period progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Boundary layer winds and lingering low level moisture will once
again lead to low confidence TAFs this morning. Short periods
of MVFR/IFR are possible for the next few hours. Thus far only
low cloud development has occurred along the NC coast, but
expect to see some development across inland areas during the
next few hours. Also expect to see some MVFR fog develop at
inland sites, but varying cloud cover and boundary layer winds
should keep visibility mostly above IFR.

Widespread VFR shortly after daybreak with any fog or low
stratus mixing out. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible, mainly coastal NC, but coverage will be rather sparse
and not warrant inclusion within the TAFs. Northeast winds
continue today with speeds under 7 kt. Cannot rule out sporadic
MVFR around 06Z tonight, but increasing dry air and a slight
bump in boundary layer wind speeds will limit potential.


Extended Outlook...Mainly dry with VFR conditions, but early
morning MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions continue as sfc high pres builds
in from the NW. Winds generally out of the NE, up to 10-15 kt during
the day Friday. Seas 2-4 ft Friday, a combo of easterly 9-10 second
swell and the NE 3-4 second wind wave.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Expect N to NE flow through the
period generally around 10 kts. Wind speeds will increase to near 15
kts due to NE surges with ridging high pressure Fri night and Mon.
Waveheights generally 2-4 ft with 4 footers more designated to the
SE NC coastal waters ~20 nm out.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides and NE flow continue the coastal flood
threat through the weekend. WLON7 made it to moderate flooding
Thursday, and looks like it will happen again around midday
today. Continuing the Coastal Flood Watch for both sides of the
lower Cape Fear River this morning. Technically a warning is
need at this point, but plan to hold off issuing the warning
until around 0700 EDT given that the entire counties do not need
to hear a tone alert at 0200 EDT for a product affecting a
small portion of the county. Otherwise, mainly expecting only
minor flooding for the other high tide cycles, as well as for
the beaches where Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ106-108-110.
     Coastal Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this
     afternoon for NCZ107-109.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...III
MARINE...MAS/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM