904
FXUS62 KILM 180527
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
127 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week
as high pressure sits well offshore. A system moving out of the
Bahamas could bring rain chances Friday before heat builds over
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The center of a mid/upper ridge over NC this afternoon will
transition northward to the Mid-Atlantic region through Tuesday.
At the surface, flow will remain generally onshore as a result
of high pressure off the NE CONUS. This will keep temps pretty
close to climatology for mid-June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Pretty quiet and seasonable through the period. The large mid
level ridge will be located to our north while its surface
reflection will be further east. This leads to deep layer
onshore flow and a deep blue sky as none of the inland
particulates present in mid level westerly flow will be a
factor. At the base of the subsidence inversion there may be a
stray, flat diurnal altocu at about 7kft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge to our N during the short term splits, the
main center backing to the west. This leaves a weakness in our
H5 height field that according to guidance still won`t lead to
rain chances while temperatures remain seasonably warm. Friday
offers up some uncertain rain chances, hinging almost
exclusively on the system that moves out of the Bahamas that
could have tropical characteristics even as it remains very
weak. The latter part of the period will see a weak congealing
of the H5 ridge while surface flow stays weak. Inland locations
should warm into the mid/upper 90s while the marine layer
tempers the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR continues. Patchy FEW/SCT stratus right around 3k ft moving
onshore in a few areas, but any potential MVFR would be very
isolated and of short duration. Easterly winds continue today
and tonight with gusts around 20 kt mid-morning through later
afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Surface high pressure off the NE CONUS will
maintain onshore flow through the period. A 1 ft SE swell every
12 seconds will persist, and a 2-3 ft easterly wind wave will
build to 3-4 ft through the day Tuesday.

Wednesday night through Sunday...  A very long fetch of easterly
flow will be present for most of the period around the south side
of an east-west oriented high offshore. Guidance has backed off
just shy of saying that this swell/wind wave combo yields
advisory-worth 6 ft seas Wednesday or even Thursday but flags
could be needed as the Bahama system approaches and its track is
highly uncertain. Hopefully details become clearer in future
model runs. A little bit of variability creeps into the winds
Saturday behind the system, likely disrupting the swell energy
as well.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents:
A building easterly swell will maintain an elevated rip current
risk for east and southeast facing beaches in our area through
(at least) the end of the week. A high risk of rip currents is
forecasted for Pender, New Hanover and Georgetown county
beaches, along with Myrtle Beach southward in Horry, Wednesday
through Friday. The south facing beaches of Brunswick county
(east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong east to west
longshore currents these days due to easterly swell and winds
versus strong rip currents. Breaking wave heights approach 6
feet at east-facing beaches late Thursday through early Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...MBB/CRM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VAO