487
FXUS61 KILN 021801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
201 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great
Lakes will move into the area today offering a continued chance
of a shower and perhaps a thunderstorm. The front will stall
and weaken further allowing high pressure to build in by Monday
providing a period of dry weather. An unsettled pattern will
then develop for mid week and continue through the end of the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak surface low in southeast Indiana will continue to drift
east into the Tri-State. Scattered showers ahead of this feature
will continue to push across southern counties this afternoon.
With some breaks in the clouds, enough instability could develop
to allow for some thunder.

Meanwhile, a surface trough extending from northwest Ohio into
central Indiana is also sliding eastward. There are some very
light echoes along this boundary and further development is
possible through the afternoon as this moves into the northwest
part of the forecast area.

Have lowered temperatures even though there are some breaks
developing in the clouds across parts of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Lingering showers and embedded thunder will end this evening in
weakly forced environment. Signal for fog development exists
tonight in light wind regime with abundant low level moisture.
At this time have a mention of fog in the forecast but have not
mentioned dense fog but that potential does exist. Lows will
fall into the lower 60s for most locations.

Weak surface high pressure across the area Monday will offer dry
conditions. Fog that develops will improve by mid morning with
skies becoming partly by afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer
with highs in the lower and middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Shortwave energy running into an upper ridge will get stalled west
of the CWA Monday night and gradually increase lift as it eventually
tops the ridge in northwest Ohio later in the day Tuesday. Rain and
thunderstorm chances will increase slightly through daybreak
Wednesday as the upper ridge moves to the East Coast. As the zonal
southwest flow follows the breakdown of the ridge, moisture will be
pulled into the Ohio Valley, along with shortwave energy passing
east as it rotates around an elongated cutoff low running nw-se
through the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will result,
peaking in the afternoon and tapering off overnight. Thursday will
have a continued chance of showers and maybe some thunderstorms in
the afternoon as the cutoff low begins to track along the nw-se axis
towards MI. For the remainder of the forecast, the upper low wraps
up in MI and makes a slow track into northern OH by Friday night.
The atmosphere should be worked over beginning Thursday night with
drier air being pulled in from the northwest. The cold nature of the
low should see passing shower activity, and some insolation on
Saturday could interact with energy on the back side of the low for
the showers to strengthen enough to spark some thunder in the
late day.

A warm start to Tuesday with morning lows in the mid 60s will warm
nicely into the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows are even warmer on
Tuesday night, only dropping to the upper 60s. The precip on
Wednesday will knock highs down a bit from near 80 in the west to
the mid 80s in the east. Temperatures continue a decline through the
remainder of the forecast, dropping below 60 for lows Thursday night
and under 80 for highs on Friday and lingering in the upper 70s and
upper 50s into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low ceilings across the area will be lifting during the early
part of the TAF period as well as having breaks develop in the
cloud cover. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty
regarding the evolution of the clouds. It appears that most
sites will become VFR within a few hours either side of 00Z
except perhaps for the Columbus terminals. However, lingering
low level moisture and light winds will most likely result in
fog and in some cases stratus developing generally after 06Z.
This will result in IFR to LIFR conditions. After 12Z,
Visibility will improve first follow by ceilings lifting and
scattering late in the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...