194
FXUS61 KILN 260224
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1024 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday into
Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
High pressure and a drier airmass will return for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms have exited southern portions of the
region leaving the area dry for the time being. Not expecting a
lot of development overnight, however what development there
will be is expected to be focused on the south and southwest
portions of the area. Temperatures are not expected to drop much
further overnight with lows generally in the upper 60s to around
70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The mid level short wave will move east across our area through
the day on Wednesday, helping to push an associated cold front
southeast across the Ohio Valley. Developing low and mid level
flow ahead of this will lead to increasing moisture advection,
with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms developing and
shifting southeast across the region through the day on
Wednesday. The strengthening wind fields ahead of this system
will lead to increasing deeper layer shear through the day with
the potential for some strong to severe storms ahead of the
front Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, depending on
how widespread and the effects of any morning pcpn, instability
may pose a limiting factor to a more widespread severe threat.
As of now, it appears the best chance for any severe storms
would be across southeast portions of our area where we should
have the best chance at some better instabilities. Highs on
Wednesday will range from the upper 70s in the northwest to the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees across our far southeast.

Showers and storms will taper off from the northwest Wednesday
evening as the cold front moves through. Lows Wednesday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift east through the Great Lakes
Thursday and Thursday night. This will provide cooler and drier
weather. As the high shifts off to the east on Friday, return flow
will bring low level moisture back into the Ohio Valley from the
south. A weak mid-level disturbance along with a surface warm front
could bring scattered storms into the region late Friday into Friday
night. However, the best chance for precipitation will arrive along
and ahead of the next cold front on Saturday. With PWATs near two
inches, will need to watch for a heavy rain threat. In addition,
heat indices could approach 100 degrees depending on cloud (and
precipitation) coverage and timing during the day.

More surface high pressure will follow this frontal system
Sunday into early next week, with temperatures falling back to near
normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some gusty winds with some light shower activity near KCVG and
KLUK at the start of the TAF period. There is quite a bit of
variability with convective development overnight and into the
day on Wednesday. Trended towards the HRRR as it is handling
current scenario better. Expect a period of dry conditions after
initial light shower activity around KCVG and KLUK, with some
shower activity moving into the region later in the overnight
hours. Cannot rule out some thunderstorms, however probability
was too low to include at this time. Going into the day on
Wednesday expect additional shower and thunderstorm development,
especially during the afternoon and into the early evening
hours. Limited mention to shra and vcts until confidence in
timing improves to time out tsra. Winds will pick up and some
wind gusts will also be possible during that time.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...