330
FXUS61 KILN 231456
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1056 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold today. A
brief respite in the heat and humidity is expected on Monday,
before warmer and more humid air quickly builds back into the
region on Tuesday, along with chances for storms Tuesday night
through Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions will then return
for the last part of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Progressive mid level trof to track thru the northern Great
Lakes today. This will drive a surface cold front - that is
currently approaching extreme northwest Ohio - thru ILN/s area
by early evening. Initial band of weakening convection over the
Scioto River Valley - associated with 40-45kt low level jet
continues to move off to the east.

The environment will re-load with increased low level moisture
leading to SBCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/KG ahead of the
approaching cold front. Scattered convection will re-develop in
this moderately unstable airmass in the pre-frontal
environment. Deep layer shear of 20-25 kts is indicated in the
0-6km layer. With the low level jet shifting east the the flow
veers some with the profile becoming more unidirectional this
afternoon. DCAPE values become favorable for damaging winds with
values around 1200 J/KG.

The potential for severe weather will be along and southeast of
I-71 between 2 PM and 8 PM - with strong to damaging winds
being the main threat.

Wind gusts (outside of storm activity) will be 20-25 mph today,
subsiding after sunset.

Highs to top out from the lower lower northwest to the upper
80s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Tranquil conditions will prevail through the short term period
as /much/ drier air briefly settles into the OH Vly tonight
through the day Monday. This will mean slightly cooler
conditions tonight (with lows generally in the lower to mid 60s)
and abundant sunshine on Monday as highs top out in the mid to upper
80s.

Light northerly flow will keep the dry air entrenched across the
local area through Monday night, before the humidity returns
rather aggressively by late Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Some of the driest air of the period will be departing the region at
the start of the extended period. Monday night`s low temperatures
will fall to the low 60s with Tds in the upper 50s. A welcome
relief compared to how it`s been feeling.

However, we quickly rebound quickly rebound on Tuesday with another
surge of theta-e into the region ahead of the next system... a
rather potent low are of low pressure that is carving its way
through Canada. Most recent run of the blend has backed off a bit
the heat indices on Tuesday by about 8 to 10 degrees. We`ll see if
this trend continues. Either way, should still be a warm day on
Tuesday with feels-like temperatures reaching the 90s.

As a cold front is dragged into the Ohio Valley Tuesday
afternoon/evening, showers and storms will be forced out ahead of
it. Right now, there is still some ambiguity as to when storms will
move through (Tuesday late night? Wednesday day? Perhaps more than
one round?). Some guidance still hints at a MCS blowing through the
region at some point, but consistently between runs in terms of
timing/location has been lacking. Either way, the area is still lit
up by Colorado State machine learning Tuesday/Wednesday and given
ample instability that will be in place combined with the parent low
pressure moving through, would expect some type of organized
convection. Would also be remiss not to note that with PWATs 2
standard deviations above normal, any storms that roll through will
likely have some efficient rain rates. Any training that occurs may
result in areas of localized flooding or runoff.

Thursday will provide another break from the excessive heat in the
post frontal air with highs in the low/mid 80s with dry weather as
weak ridging and surface high pressure move into the region. By
Friday, temperatures look to warm again as southerly flow returns
ahead of another disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Increasing/thickening mid/high clouds are overspreading the
local area, accompanied by a weakening/decaying broken line of
SHRA/TSRA, but latest guidance continues to suggest the
activity will hold together through most, if not all, of the
local area through 15z. Some brief MVFR VSBYs will be possible
with the heaviest activity. Behind the morning SHRA/TSRA, there
may be a brief break before ISO/SCT convection redevelops,
especially by/after 17z. This will be most favored for locales
near/SE of I-71 (especially KCVG/KLUK/KILN/KCMH/KLCK) until
about 21z-22z before activity moves to the SE of the local
terminals thereafter.

VFR CIGs are expected, with borderline MVFR CIGs possible at
nrn sites of KDAY/KILN/KCMH/KLCK between about 14z-17z. However,
did not yet have confidence to add MVFR CIGs to the fcst at any
of these sites, but it is mentioned here for awareness
purposes.

SW winds around 8-10kts will increase to 12-15kts, with gusts
between 20-25kts, developing by/after 15z. A wind shift to out
of the NW will occur by 22z for the local sites, with gustiness
tapering off toward/beyond sunset as winds become more northerly
toward daybreak Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC