654
FXUS61 KILN 260558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
158 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical remnants will bring rain and wind to close the work
week. Low pressure lingers around the Ohio Valley through the
weekend with continued rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Stalled frontal boundary near/SE of I-71 corridor will meander
slightly overnight but hardly change its position. A lack of
drier air with the front will keep a milder air mass in place
overnight, along with higher dewpoint values. Near and just SE
of the front, a brief, isolated shower remains possible. A
rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out with any shower given the
little bit of elevated instability available, but this won`t be
a high chance by any means.

Low level moisture will become trapped under a blanket of cloud
coverage, especially near/SE of I-71. This could lead to some
patchy fog development as well, especially along the river
valleys where dewpoints could be a degree or two higher.
Regardless, dewpoint depression of only 1 or 2 degree expected
for this region. Expect overnight lows to remain in the 60s for
most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The stalled front washes out during the day on Thursday as the
strengthening surface low pressure to the south deepens in
response to Hurricane Helene moving into the Gulf Coast. Not
much changes during the day with regards to the overall weather
because the rainfall chances are still focused to the south. The
only substantial change will be that the weak and variable
winds will become more northeasterly during the afternoon.

Low level southeasterly flow increases Thursday evening with
more significant tropical moisture advection moving north into
the Ohio Valley. This will be the first chance for periods of
light to moderate rain, primarily along the Ohio River and
south. Better chances for rain will be more plausible during the
long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday is shaping up to be a wet and breezy/windy day as the
remnants of Helene move north then northwest across the
Tennessee Valley. The surface pressure gradient will increase as
the low moves northwest. This, along with strong winds aloft,
should bring wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range. There could
even be some isolated 40 mph gusts, especially along and south
of the Ohio River. Saturated low levels should prevent winds
from getting stronger (limited mixing). Widespread showers,
isolated thunderstorms, are expected south with decreasing
chances of pcpn as one heads north. Despite the tropical
moisture, the speed of the pcpn shield should limit rainfall
amounts which will actually be beneficial to our drought
stricken region. By Friday night, the mid level energy that once
was Helene will be merging into a synoptic mid level closed low
to our southwest. This process will result in a decrease in
pcpn chances overnight. Winds will also diminish as the surface
low undergoes frictional decay. Rainfall amounts will range from
0.25 to 0.50 inches north to 1.50-1.75 inches along and south
of the Ohio River.

For the upcoming weekend, more opportunities for rainfall will
be possible as the center of the mid level closed low slowly
rotates east/northeast across Kentucky and Tennessee, weakening
and shearing as it goes along. Will continue with clouds and
chances of showers, with some isolated thunder possible during
the peak diurnal cycle.

The mid level closed low is forecast to weaken, shear, and open
up as upstream energy digs east/southeast into the Great Lakes
Monday into Wednesday. This process will also be associated with
a cold front, expected to pass through during the
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Lingering pcpn chances should end
after frontal passage.

As for temperatures, they will be held down on Friday with
clouds, rain, and wind. The weekend will feature highs 75 to 80
and lows in the 60s. A cooling trend is then expected by
Wednesday behind the cold front, along with a much drier
airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will be prevalent at the Columbus terminals for
the first half of the period before finally scattering out.
Elsewhere, some visibility restrictions may occur in mist/fog
early in the period. Otherwise VFR conditions. Light winds will
become northeast to east during the day and very gradually
strengthen.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts at or above 30 kt as well as MVFR ceilings likely
Friday into Friday evening. IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities
also possible. MVFR ceilings possible again Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...