312
FXUS61 KILN 081040
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
640 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will be possible today into tonight as a weak
upper level disturbance moves through the Ohio Valley. Mainly
dry conditions are then expected through much of the upcoming
week. After a cool day on Monday, a warming trend will develop
across the region through mid to late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mid level short wave currently over the mid Mississippi Valley
will weaken as it moves east into the mid Ohio Valley through
this afternoon. Fairly widespread shower and embedded
thunderstorm activity back across Missouri early this morning
will continue to move east southeast today but will be moving
into a drier airmass with little in the way of instability. As a
result, the more widespread pcpn should begin to dissipate as it
approaches our western areas so will only carry some lower end
pops for today, with the highest chances across our
southwestern areas. Otherwise, we will see skies becoming mostly
cloudy today with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A weak surface trough/cold front will drop southeast across our
area tonight into Sunday morning. Forcing looks to be fairly
weak and deeper moisture remains limited, so will generally
limit any pops to just slight chance for tonight into Sunday.
Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s northwest to the mid
60s southeast with highs on Sunday in the 75 to 80 degree
range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended period will see a warming trend from below normal
temperatures to well above normal by the end of the week. Much of
the week is rain-free, but a weak frontal passage on Thursday
night or Friday may spark a chance of thunderstorms.

Starting off Sunday night into Monday, the trough axis will swing
through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, reinforcing lower theta-e
values into the region. This will support below normal temperatures
on Monday with some locations struggling to climb into the 70s. The
coolest temperatures will be experienced Monday night as surface
high pressure build in from the north. Most locations drop into the
upper 40s but the warmer spots may remain in the lower 50s. Either
way, a chilly morning should be expected for Tuesday. Mostly sunny
skies support warmer temperatures in comparison to Monday with
locations approaching normal (upper 70s to lower 80s).

A weak boundary approaches on Wednesday, prompting southwesterly
flow and another bump in high temperatures back into the 80s. A
stronger boundary approaches from the north on Thursday. Modest low-
level moisture returns ahead the front, sparking thunderstorms to
the northwest of the local area. Forecast soundings from the GFS
show that lower values of instability exist across the area, but
certainly can`t rule out remnant convective activity eventually
moving into the eastern Indiana/west-central Ohio locations late
Thursday. The boundary will provide a chance for thunderstorms
across the local area on Friday, but timing will be the key for how
scattered/widespread these will be. Current forecast high
temperatures are quite high on Friday (upper 80s and lower 90s), but
this is made with lower confidence to the potential influence of the
front and any thunderstorms.

Lastly, confidence remains high that entering the following
weekend/early next week, temperatures will be above normal. The
latest Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook (June 15-21) calls
for a 70-80% of above normal temperatures. Enjoy the cooler / lower
humidity conditions because more summer-like weather appears to be
arriving soon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weakening mid level short wave will move east across the Ohio
Valley today. Showers associated with this will continue to
push east today but should weaken as they encounter some drier
air across our area. A few light rain showers will still be
possible late this morning and into this afternoon, especially
across southwest portions of our area. Will go ahead and hang on
to a VCSH for a few hour period today at KCVG/KLUK. Otherwise,
VFR clouds will thicken up and lower today.

A weak cold front will push southeast across the region tonight
into Sunday morning. This could lead to a few showers overnight
but chances appear low enough to leave any mention out of
the TAFs. Meanwhile, some MVFR cigs will develop late tonight
as the cold front moves through.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...JGL