492
FXUS61 KILN 080106
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
906 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue tonight as high pressure persists. A
disturbance moving from the west will bring a chance of showers
and possibly a thunderstorm Saturday and Sunday. High pressure
and dry air return for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Diurnally driven cu are dissipating while high clouds from the
disturbance out west are beginning to overspread the region, but
quiet conditions prevail during the overnight hours. Winds
decrease and become calm to light and variable. Overnight lows
still trending a few degrees below normal, into the mid 50s.

Previous discussion-> High pressure centered to the south will
provide dry weather and mainly clear skies tonight. Gusty west
winds are expected to diminish to under 6 knots overnight. Below
normal lows in the 50s are forecast by 6 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A mid-level disturbance and surface low will be tracking across
the Central Ohio Valley. The disturbance will be weakening as it
encounters dry air and high pressure in place. A few showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may occur out of the modest
moisture, convergence and lift that are associated with this
system. The shower threat begins mainly in western locations on
Saturday, shifting south to the Ohio River Saturday night as the
system moves east.

Highs are forecast to range from the mid 70s west, up to around
80 east. Insulating cloud cover should allow above normal lows
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Near or just below normal temperatures are expected as we end the
weekend and continue into the next work week. This is mainly driven
by the synoptic pattern aloft, with troughing present in the jet
stream. This trough will amplify as we progress through the day on
Sunday as PVA ejects southward from Canada. There will be subtle
changes in the overall structure and strength of this troughing
feature, but this trough will remain in place as we head into the
beginning of the work week. Given the persistent northwesterly flow,
drier air will also accompany this feature, leading to dewpoints in
the upper 40s to middle 50s across the CWA.

This main troughing feature will propagate eastward by late Tuesday
into Wednesday. The surface response appears to be slow on
Wednesday, but we will begin to see a slight uptick in temperature
and dewpoint values. A more notable uptick in heat/humidity values
is expected on Thursday as H5 height rises continue.

Drier conditions are favored during the majority of the extended
forecast period, but a couple of days with a low chance of PoPs
remains for portions of our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions remain in place for the forecast. Scattered
diurnally driven cu are dissipating as the sun sets. However,
some high cirrus blowoff from a disturbance out to the west is
beginning to move into the Tri-State. Winds will decrease
overnight hours becoming calm to light and variable. Very dry
conditions in place, so not too concerned about fog (although,
LUK has a tendency to surprise us).

Saturday morning arrives dry, with winds shifting to out of the
southwest around 10 knots. High level clouds thicken and lower
throughout the day. A weak disturbance passes through the area,
losing organization as it progresses into the region. As such,
there is low confidence on precipitation from this system. For
now, have included a period of VCSH at southernmost TAF sites
for a period during the late morning hours, however, isolated
showers may linger through the afternoon. Instability is
minimal, so while some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out,
not expecting any strong storms. CIGs remain VFR through the end
of this TAF period, but expecting some notable lowering as we
head into Sunday.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Sunday as showers and
storms move through the region.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...CA/Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...CA