229
FXUS61 KILN 020825
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
425 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great
Lakes will move into the area today offering a continued chance
of a shower and perhaps a thunderstorm. The front will stall
and weaken further allowing high pressure to build in by Monday
providing a period of dry weather. An unsettled pattern will
then develop for mid week and continue through the end of the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Widespread rain showers continue to decrease in coverage this
morning as the main axis of a mid level shortwave pivots slowly
southeast. .

Some hang back troughing will be slow to exit, mainly across
the south/southeast thru this afternoon. This trof combined with
marginal instability will lead to a continued threat for showers
and embedded thunderstorms thru the afternoon.

Meanwhile, a weak front will push into western counties this
afternoon and then stall and eventually wash out. Forcing
will be weak, but with abundant low level moisture in place -
marginal instability will develop this aftn. This will allow
a continued threat for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm thru
the aftn into early evening. Coverage looks to be limited and
isolated to scattered. Due to limited instability and a lack of
favorable shear - severe weather is not expected today.

How quickly cloud cover improves is uncertain but generally
expect some improvement this afternoon. Highs to range from the
mid to the upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Lingering showers and embedded thunder will end this evening in
weakly forced environment. Signal for fog development exists
tonight in light wind regime with abundant low level moisture.
At this time have a mention of fog in the forecast but have not
mentioned dense fog but that potential does exist. Lows will
fall into the lower 60s for most locations.

Weak surface high pressure across the area Monday will offer dry
conditions. Fog that develops will improve by mid morning with
skies becoming partly by afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer
with highs in the lower and middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shortwave energy running into an upper ridge will get stalled west
of the CWA Monday night and gradually increase lift as it eventually
tops the ridge in northwest Ohio later in the day Tuesday. Rain and
thunderstorm chances will increase slightly through daybreak
Wednesday as the upper ridge moves to the East Coast. As the zonal
southwest flow follows the breakdown of the ridge, moisture will be
pulled into the Ohio Valley, along with shortwave energy passing
east as it rotates around an elongated cutoff low running nw-se
through the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will result,
peaking in the afternoon and tapering off overnight. Thursday will
have a continued chance of showers and maybe some thunderstorms in
the afternoon as the cutoff low begins to track along the nw-se axis
towards MI. For the remainder of the forecast, the upper low wraps
up in MI and makes a slow track into northern OH by Friday night.
The atmosphere should be worked over beginning Thursday night with
drier air being pulled in from the northwest. The cold nature of the
low should see passing shower activity, and some insolation on
Saturday could interact with energy on the back side of the low for
the showers to strengthen enough to spark some thunder in the
late day.

A warm start to Tuesday with morning lows in the mid 60s will warm
nicely into the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows are even warmer on
Tuesday night, only dropping to the upper 60s. The precip on
Wednesday will knock highs down a bit from near 80 in the west to
the mid 80s in the east. Temperatures continue a decline through the
remainder of the forecast, dropping below 60 for lows Thursday night
and under 80 for highs on Friday and lingering in the upper 70s and
upper 50s into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level shortwave to dampen out and shift east of the area
this morning. Widespread showers decrease in coverage from west
to east thru 12Z.

Ceilings drop to widespread MVFR with a period of IFR ceilings
expected around sunrise. Ceilings will slowly improve after
sunrise.Expect some gradual improvement through the late
afternoon, but confidence is low in how quickly cig restrictions
clear back to VFR.

Can`t rule out scattered thunderstorm activity late Sunday
afternoon and evening, but the overall lack of coverage
warranted leaving mention of thunder in the TAF forecasts at
this time.

A signal for fog development looks good for tonight. Have MVFR
conditions at all TAF sites with IFR at 30 hour KCVG TAF site
after 09Z.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs/VIS possible Sunday night and Monday
morning. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR