055
FXUS61 KILN 260001
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
801 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday into
Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
High pressure and a drier airmass will return for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Remnant outflow boundary from the morning convection is still
pushing south across the area and is currently moving through
northern Kentucky and far south central Ohio. Despite the lack
of better instability, the good convergence along this boundary
is keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms going along and
just behind it. These will likely continue to sag south across
southern portions of our area over the next couple of hours.
Meanwhile, another area of convection back across central
Illinois should continue to slide east-southeast along the
boundary through late afternoon and early evening and may
eventually affect southwest portions of our area heading into
this evening. With winds becoming northerly behind the boundary,
think the overall severe threat will be fairly limited through
the rest of the afternoon/evening across our area.

Expect a general lull in pcpn across our area later this
evening and into the overnight hours. However, a mid level
short wave will approach from the west later tonight and this
could lead to some additional shower and embedded thunderstorm
development late, primarily across western portions of the
area. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The mid level short wave will move east across our area through
the day on Wednesday, helping to push an associated cold front
southeast across the Ohio Valley. Developing low and mid level
flow ahead of this will lead to increasing moisture advection,
with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms developing and
shifting southeast across the region through the day on
Wednesday. The strengthening wind fields ahead of this system
will lead to increasing deeper layer shear through the day with
the potential for some strong to severe storms ahead of the
front Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, depending on
how widespread and the effects of any morning pcpn, instability
may pose a limiting factor to a more widespread severe threat.
As of now, it appears the best chance for any severe storms
would be across southeast portions of our area where we should
have the best chance at some better instabilities. Highs on
Wednesday will range from the upper 70s in the northwest to the
upper 80s to around 90 degrees across our far southeast.

Showers and storms will taper off from the northwest Wednesday
evening as the cold front moves through. Lows Wednesday night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift east through the Great Lakes
Thursday and Thursday night. This will provide cooler and drier
weather. As the high shifts off to the east on Friday, return flow
will bring low level moisture back into the Ohio Valley from the
south. A weak mid-level disturbance along with a surface warm front
could bring scattered storms into the region late Friday into Friday
night. However, the best chance for precipitation will arrive along
and ahead of the next cold front on Saturday. With PWATs near two
inches, will need to watch for a heavy rain threat. In addition,
heat indices could approach 100 degrees depending on cloud (and
precipitation) coverage and timing during the day.

More surface high pressure will follow this frontal system
Sunday into early next week, with temperatures falling back to near
normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some gusty winds with some light shower activity near KCVG and
KLUK at the start of the TAF period. There is quite a bit of
variability with convective development overnight and into the
day on Wednesday. Trended towards the HRRR as it is handling
current scenario better. Expect a period of dry conditions after
initial light shower activity around KCVG and KLUK, with some
shower activity moving into the region later in the overnight
hours. Cannot rule out some thunderstorms, however probability
was too low to include at this time. Going into the day on
Wednesday expect additional shower and thunderstorm development,
especially during the afternoon and into the early evening
hours. Limited mention to shra and vcts until confidence in
timing improves to time out tsra. Winds will pick up and some
wind gusts will also be possible during that time.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...