254
FXUS61 KILN 231906
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
306 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday. Drier weather is expected
for Wednesday through Thursday before a tropical system provides
a chance of precipitation late this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure tracking to Illinois tonight will push a band of
lift and moisture to the ILN area. This will bring categorical
showers and isolated thunderstorms to Western locations by 6
am, with a chance for showers and storms farther east.
Insulating cloud cover and a humid airmass will help keep low
temperatures up in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure tracks across Indiana on Tuesday, reaching
Northern Ohio Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms
developing in deep moisture and lift will overspread the ILN
area. In addition to much-needed rainfall, severe threat will
exist from an environment containing ample instability under
potent winds aloft. Damaging straight line winds appear to be
the main threat, while isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out,
especially in northern locations closer to the low center. As
the low moves northeast Tuesday night, showers and storms will
diminish from northwest to southeast.

Highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the low 80s
south and southeast will be followed by lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Higher precipitation chances on Wednesday will be focused across far
southeastern portions of the forecast area.  Precipitation chances
Thursday through the remainder of the long term will be highly
dependent on the tropical system south of the region.  Have at least
some precipitation chances in most of this time period, however as
models come into better agreement precipitation chances will need to
be fine tuned.  Breezy conditions will also be possible, especially
on Friday as the system nears the region.  With cloud cover
temperatures will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s for highs during
the long term.  Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s
to middle 60s

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aviation will be affected by low pressure tracking from the
southwest. MVFR ceilings that persist behind the previous system
should dissipate within a couple of hours, allowing a period of
VFR this evening. For tonight through the end of the forecast,
showers will develop and move across TAF sites. MVFR ceilings
are expected to develop at all sites by Tuesday morning as low
levels near saturation. Improvement back to VFR could occur
Tuesday afternoon as mixing increases. Winds shifting to south
should reach around 10 knots Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio