160
FXUS61 KILN 240124
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
924 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to
the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday. Drier weather is expected
for Wednesday through Thursday before a tropical system provides
a chance of precipitation late this week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Recent radar returns indicate a band of light showers moving
through the region. This band continues to lose intensity as it
travels farther east. We`ll go through a brief lull in
precipitation for the next few hours before another wave of
precipitation pushes into the region shortly before sunrise.

Right now, forecast soundings indicate some elevated
instability should be present with this next wave, particularly
south of I-70, so have included thunder in the grids for most
areas. However, keep in mind that even areas without thunder
will likely see some heavier downpours during the 5-9AM period,
potentially creating a messy rush hour. If driving in the rain,
be sure to have your headlights on and leave some extra
stopping distance!

Previous discussion--> Low pressure tracking to Illinois
tonight will push a band of lift and moisture to the ILN area.
This will bring categorical showers and isolated thunderstorms
to Western locations by 6 am, with a chance for showers and
storms farther east. Insulating cloud cover and a humid airmass
will help keep low temperatures up in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure tracks across Indiana on Tuesday, reaching
Northern Ohio Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms
developing in deep moisture and lift will overspread the ILN
area. In addition to much-needed rainfall, severe threat will
exist from an environment containing ample instability under
potent winds aloft. Damaging straight line winds appear to be
the main threat, while isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out,
especially in northern locations closer to the low center. As
the low moves northeast Tuesday night, showers and storms will
diminish from northwest to southeast.

Highs ranging from the mid 70s northwest to the low 80s
south and southeast will be followed by lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Higher precipitation chances on Wednesday will be focused across far
southeastern portions of the forecast area.  Precipitation chances
Thursday through the remainder of the long term will be highly
dependent on the tropical system south of the region.  Have at least
some precipitation chances in most of this time period, however as
models come into better agreement precipitation chances will need to
be fine tuned.  Breezy conditions will also be possible, especially
on Friday as the system nears the region.  With cloud cover
temperatures will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s for highs during
the long term.  Low temperatures will generally be in the upper 50s
to middle 60s

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Bottom line up front:
VFR conditions to start the period will slowly deteriorate
overnight and into Tuesday as a low pressure system moves
through the region with showers and thunderstorms.

Details:
At the start of the period, a weak band of showers is pushing
northeast through the area ahead. These light rain showers
persist into the overnight before a heavier band of showers and
thunderstorms arrives during the morning hours, working its way
from the southwest toward the northeast. Went ahead and chose to
go TEMPO TSRA with this band as it moves through, given the
elevated instability that will be present. Moderate confidence.
CIGs drop down MVFR and some reduced VSBYS will also be
possible. During the Monday overnight period into Tuesday
morning, north/northeasterly winds will veer to out of the east
around 5-10 knots. Some gusts expected with any AM storms.

After the more widespread morning round of showers/storms moves
off to the east, there will be a bit of a lull, with scattered
rain showers late morning into early afternoon. CIGS and VSBYs
improve back to low end VFR. Winds continue to veer and will be
out of the south/southwest around 10-15 knots, with some gusts
up to 18 knots. By mid/late afternoon, another larger wave of
precipitation arrives ahead of the cold front pushing through
the region. There will likely be thunder with this final wave of
precipitation, however, did not include in the TAFs yet, due to
low confidence on timing. Similarly, CIGs drop again Tuesday
night after the cold front passes in the cold air advection
regime, but did not include in TAFs just yet because they`re
already at six lines and we`ve got enough to cope with. Winds
decrease and shift to out of the west post frontal passage.


OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...CA/Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA