230
FXUS61 KILN 190110
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
910 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week.
Thunderstorms will develop at times with the hot and humid
conditions. Coverage of thunderstorms will increase on Sunday
with as a cold front approaches. Slightly cooler temperatures
will then be present on Monday after the passage of this system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Evening update...
Still quite warm and humid this evening with temperatures
currently sitting in the mid 80s. Despite the muggy conditions
(~2000 J/kg of CAPE on 00Z ILN RAOB), thunderstorm activity has
been quite limited across the area. To the southeast of our
area, across portions of eastern Ohio and West Virginia,
thunderstorm activity has been more prevalent. The activity over
West Virginia was moving northwestward, but within the last
hour has shown some significant weakening trends. This cold-pool
driven boundary may help to spark a few showers or isolated
thunderstorms into the overnight. So while PoPs were lowered,
some mention still remains given the lingering heat and weak
disturbance to the west as discussed below.

No other changes were made to the overall forecast or heat
advisory.

Previous discussion...
Hot and humid conditions are present across the region allowing
for some shower and thunderstorm development. There will be
some activity that lingers into the overnight hours as well as a
weak disturbance will be present. Some of the thunderstorms
will have the potential for damaging wind gusts and heavy
rainfall. Continued mention in the HWO. With the hot and humid
airmass, continued the heat advisory. Low temperatures are only
expected to drop into the 70s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Another hot and humid day on Wednesday with heat index values
near 100. Thunderstorm development will again be likely with
this airmass, although not all locations will see rainfall as
precipitation will be isolated to scattered in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hot conditions will be persistent through into this weekend. Daytime
highs will nudge upwards just slightly Friday and Saturday which
look to be the hottest days.

Dew points are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 60s which
results in a heat index mainly in the 95 to 100 range through the
weekend. Lows will generally be in the lower 70s with some urban
areas remaining in the mid 70s. A Heat advisory remains in effect
through Friday although there is a good likelihood that it will be
extended into Saturday. Temperatures turn more seasonable next
Monday with highs generally in the mid and upper 80s.

Expansive mid and upper level ridge centered over the east coast at
mid week to retrograde west and flatten some as we head into the
latter part of the week.

The threat for isolated to scattered storms will persist around the
periphery of the ridge across the northern counties Thursday and
Friday. The ridge will build a little north Friday and Saturday
which will limit thunderstorm chances.

The ridge will be suppressed south as a progressive mid level trof
tracks thru the Great Lakes Sunday. This will drive a surface cold
front through the area Sunday afternoon and evening with showers and
thunderstorms occurring ahead of it.

In the wake of the front a surface high pressure will build into the
area for Monday. This high looks to offer drier weather and cooler
more seasonable temperatures. There are model differences regarding
how fast we dry out and have limited any mention of pcpn to a
lingering slight chance across the southeast. The dry period will be
short lived with an increasing threat for thunderstorms later
Tuesday and into Wednesday with the approach of the next
shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid and upper level clouds have helped to limit thunderstorm
potential across the area this evening, however, a band of
thunderstorms driven by rain-cooled outflow is moving
northwestward toward the area out of West Virginia. This will
need to be monitored for potential changes to area TAFs late
this evening into the early overnight. Otherwise, a moist air
mass will remain in place through the rest of the overnight,
with limited rainfall expected.

MVFR CIGs remain in the LUK TAF for early morning hours
(09-11Z).

For tomorrow, a fetch of lingering moisture will persist over
eastern Indiana and western Ohio, providing some confidence in
renewed thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon. Therefore,
have opted to maintain mention of thunder for DAY, CVG, and LUK.
Have limited mentions for CMH, LCK, and ILN due to the better
moisture being displaced to the west.

Throughout the period, winds remain below 10 knots, generally
from the southeast, although there will be some variability
overnight.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...McGinnis