453
FXUS61 KILN 172315
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
715 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system over the southern
Appalachians will slowly rotate east through Wednesday. High
pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Large scale pattern tonight will consist of mid-level ridging
centered over the central Plains with troughing over the
Appalachians. Decaying tropical low at the base of this trough
will be nearly stationary during the period. Clouds and some
light showers will remain generally across our southeast
associated with the decaying low. A dry atmosphere to the north
and west will otherwise provide warm and dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Have held a chance of showers in our southeast Wednesday as the
low slowly weakens. Clouds will continue to offer slightly
cooler afternoon temperatures in this area. Otherwise, partly to
mostly cloudy skies will continue with warm afternoon highs in
the lower 80s.

Guidance continues to show a decreasing trend in the clouds and
PoPs Wednesday night. This will cause more efficient
radiational cooling conditions leading to lows dipping into the
upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains in place over the northeastern CONUS
through Saturday night. This synoptic setup will allow for dry
conditions and above average temperatures to persist across the
Ohio Valley. Forecast highs remain in the 80s. Forecast lows
through the end of the week range from near 60 Thursday night to
the lower 60s by Saturday night.

The surface high is expected to shift further east by Sunday
into the start of next week. Winds are forecast to take on a
more southwesterly direction as this occurs. This shift in wind
direction may allow a subtle increase in moisture across the
Ohio Valley although rain chances remain less than 30% each day
due to lack of forcing. Unless a low pressure system forms in
the Plains, it may be difficult to squeeze out any widespread
rainfall despite above average PWATs next week. Above average
temperatures likely continue.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The center of an upper level low pressure system over the
southern Appalachians will slowly rotate east through the TAF
period. Some scattered light shower activity along and southeast
of I-71 will decrease in coverage overnight. On Wednesday, any
lingering light showers will be relegated to the southeast of
the terminals. VFR conditions will prevail with winds remaining
east to northeast between 5 and 10 knots in most spots.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman