769
FXUS61 KILN 171047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move from the Carolinas into the southern
Appalachians today where it will stall. The region will be on
the northern periphery of this large system which will gradually
weaken as the week progresses. This will result in a chance of
rain showers mainly southeast of I-71 today and Wednesday. High
pressure will then offer dry weather for the end of the week
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Stacked mid level and surface low over the Carolinas to track
west into the southern Appalachians today. This will keep a
fair amount of cloud cover across the region. In addition,
an increase in moisture combined with a disturbance rotating
around the northern periphery of this system will bring some
showers into the southeastern part of the forecast area mainly
this afternoon. Low levels will remain dry and most of the model
solutions keep any measurable precipitation rather light.

Clouds will keep daytime temperatures a little cooler than
today - but still continue above normal. Expect highs to range
from near 80 southeast to the mid 80s northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Stacked low will meander thru the southern Appalachians
tonight into Wednesday. Evening pops for a rain shower over the
southeast will decrease to slight chance overnight. Clouds and
an increase in low level moisture will result in warmer readings
with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

Expect a slight diurnal uptick with chance pops for a shower in
the far southeast Wednesday afternoon. Expect warm highs to
range from the lower 80s to the middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure containing scant moisture is likely to keep dry
weather across the Ohio Valley through the period. Some model
members indicate a low threat for showers on Monday, but the chance
is below the threshold to appear in the forecast.

Temperatures will stay quite warm. Highs in the mid and upper 80s
Thursday and Friday will increase to around 90 on Saturday. Under a
modest decrease in geopotential heights, temperatures may then drop
a few degrees to the mid 80s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weakening low pressure system approaching from the southeast
will provide an increase in mid and high level clouds through
the day into the evening with lower clouds around 5000 feet
overnight. A few light rain showers or sprinkles will be
possible southeast of I-71 this afternoon into this evening, but
should generally remain to the southeast of the TAF sites.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR