499
FXUS61 KILN 150603
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
203 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent high pressure will keep dry and warm conditions
across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mostly clear skies will continue through the overnight hours.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft centered to the northeast
of the region will remain in place. If anything, low levels
might be even a bit drier. So expect skies to remain clear even
at peak heating. The drier air should also allow temperatures
to cool a little more on Sunday night. But for the daytime,
expect highs to end up near persistence, which is nearly 10
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday morning, an upper high will remain in place from the
eastern Great Lakes through the northeastern CONUS. Lower heights
and more unsettled weather will be found over the southeastern
CONUS. The Ohio Valley will still be in a dry and stagnant pattern
as a result of the high, with generally easterly flow. Temperatures
on Monday will remain above normal (mid to upper 80s) before coming
down to values  near or just slightly above normal for much of the
rest of the week (lower 80s).

Forecast confidence gets lower from Tuesday onward, with respect to
an area of low pressure developing near the southeastern coast. This
low is forecast to move inland by the middle of the week, as the
persistent upper high finally breaks down. Model solutions on how
this will play out are not in great agreement on several factors,
such as the timing of the system, and the coverage of the
precipitation associated with the low. There has been a slight trend
toward an earlier and more inland solution, which has prompted some
low-end PoPs in the far eastern ILN CWA for Tuesday and Wednesday.
This forecast is of low confidence, as the track of the system is
unusual and the very dry antecedent conditions also factor against
widespread precipitation. Nonetheless, some small chance of rain
does appear to exist -- though these chances are greater to the east
of the ILN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level ridge centered over the Great Lakes will provide dry
conditions and mostly clear skies through the TAF period. East-
southeast low level flow may result in some river valley fog at
KLUK toward sunrise. Have a mention of MVFR vsby restrictions.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR