803
FXUS61 KILN 191028
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
628 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably hot temperatures persist through the rest of the
week. Storm coverage will be more limited, but will linger the
next couple of days. The next best chance of rain will arrive on
Sunday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cirrus clouds continue traverse the fa this morning. Model
soundings show increased saturation occurring the low levels,
which will lead to cu development later this morning and
afternoon. There will be a fair amount of cloud cover throughout
the day, but temperatures are still expected to climb above 90
degrees. There will be a subtle wind shift with the high
pressure system drifting eastward, leading to surface flow out
of the south-southeast for majority of our CWA. This will lead
to a slight decrease in dewpoint temps, but only by a couple
degrees compared to Tuesday. Heat indicies for most of our fa
will struggle to climb above 100 degrees, but have opted to keep
the Heat Advisory out given impacts of prolonged heat wave.

As with the last couple of days, we will once again observe a
chance for isolated thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening. Coverage will be pretty limited, mainly
towards west-central OH. However, cannot rule out pulse
showers/storms anywhere along/NW of I-71 corridor. Given the
environment, localized strong to damaging wind gusts remain
possible with any storm that develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Any storms that linger this evening will eventually fizzle out
with the loss of diurnal heating. Expecting a pretty quiet night
overall, with temperatures mainly in the 70s once again.

Thursday is expected to be a couple degrees warmer compared to
Wednesday given the increased insolation due to lower cloud
coverage during the daytime. Precip chances remain even lower
Thursday, but cannot rule out an isolated shower scooting across
our northern counties in central and west-central OH.

More locations will observe dewpoints in the middle to upper
60s, with the exception of our far western counties. This will
again lead to HI values struggling to surpass 100 degrees, but
have continued with a Heat Advisory mention given the
unseasonably hot air mass and prolonged heat wave.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper ridge centered over the lower Ohio Valley at the beginning of
the period will retrograde and get suppressed southward as energy
crosses the northern and Canadian Rockies.

Friday and Saturday will still be hot, and perhaps the hottest of
this heat wave. However, with dew points forecast to be in the mid
to upper 60s, the heat index is not much higher than air
temperatures. So forecast heat indices remain around 100, in the
advisory range. It still looks likely that the advisory will need to
be extended into Saturday at some point, but for now have kept
timing as is.

Short wave will cross the northern tier on Saturday and then move
through the upper Great Lakes on Sunday, continuing eastward into
New England on Monday. This system will push a cold front southeast
across the region late Sunday into Sunday night. There will be
convection along and ahead of the front, although extent of that is
in a bit of question.

High pressure will build in Monday and pass of to the east on
Tuesday already bringing a return of southerly flow. Upper heights
will rebound, although nowhere to the extent of what is occurring
this week.

Temperatures will drop back into the 80s on Monday but return to the
lower 90s on Tuesday. However, drier air will remain in place
through this time with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low and mid level clouds have moved out of the area, leaving
mainly high level clouds to start the morning. We will begin to
observe an increase of low level clouds during the mid to late
morning hours today, persisting through the afternoon. While
most of the terminals are more favored to remain dry, isolated
storm develop still remains possible, mainly NW of I-71. Any
storm activity will once again dissipate after sunset.

Winds will remain out of the southeast through the day.
Sustained winds below 10 kts continue through the taf period.

Clouds expected to clear out tonight with the exception of some
cirrus. This could lead to more of a fog potential, especially
at KLUK. For now, have a vsby reduction at KLUK and KILN, the
locations typically more prone to fog formation.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Clark