143
FXUS61 KILN 210114
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
914 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid airmass will be in place into the weekend. A cold
front will move through Sunday into Sunday night offering a
brief reprieve to the heat for Monday, however 90 degree
temperatures return for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface high pressure remains overhead tonight along with an upper
level ridge. Calm, clear conditions are expected once diurnal
cumulus fades away during the first half of the night with loss of
instability. Some surface fog/mist could form late overnight with
the humid, stagnant airmass in place. Forecast lows are in the lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Hot and humid conditions will once again be in place for Friday.
Heat index values will once again be around 100 and therefore
continued the heat advisory. There will once again be some pop
up showers and thunderstorms on Friday primarily across northern
portions of the area north of Interstate 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid and upper level ridge to retrograde west and flatten some -
stretching from the southern Plains thru the Ohio Valley Saturday.
The threat for isolated to scattered storms will persist around the
periphery of the ridge mainly north of ILN/s area on Saturday.
Continued hot temperatures Saturday, and perhaps the hottest of this
heat wave. However, with dew points forecast to be in the mid to
upper 60s, max forecast heat indices top out around 100, in the
advisory range.

Progressive mid level short wave to track across the northern Plains
and then move through the upper Great Lakes on Sunday, continuing
eastward into New England Monday. This will allow a surface cold
front to track southeast across the region late Sunday into Sunday
night. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the
front. Instability looks to be firmly in the moderate category with
unidirectional shear and bulk shear values around 20 kts. Shear is
not overly impressive but DCAPE values around 1000 J/KG supports the
potential for strong to damaging winds with a few of the stronger
storms.

Surface high pressure will build in for Monday and pass quickly to
the east on Tuesday allowing for a quick return to southerly flow.
This high will offer a dry period of weather and cooler - near
normal temperatures with highs in the middle and upper 80s Monday.

Temperatures return to the lower 90s on Tuesday. However, drier air
will remain in place with dew points in the lower to middle 60s
limits max heat indices close to the actual temperatures.

Model solution timing differences exist regarding the arrival of the
next threat for showers and thunderstorms. Have held off pcpn until
late Tuesday night with an increasing threat as we head into
Wednesday with the approach of the next shortwave.

Northwesterly mid level flow and surface high pressure offer drier
and cooler weather for Thursday with highs generally in the mid and
upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR ceilings are expected for the TAF period. Only some diurnal
cumulus is expected Friday afternoon. MVFR visibility reductions
will be possible late tonight/early Friday morning due to some
isolated BR/FG. Any BR should mix out shortly after 1200z.

Winds will be light and variable through 1200z Friday. Light
westerly winds increase to 5-10 knots Friday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Campbell