641
FXUS61 KILN 180529
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
129 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid air over the region will bring another day of
scattered thunderstorm activity on Tuesday afternoon. Slightly
drier air will make an appearance over the region on Thursday
but the hot airmass will remain entrenched through at least the
end of the work week, possibly into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The earlier convection has largely waned locally, with only a
few spotty SHRA/TSRA still possible through the overnight
hours. But most locations will be dry through daybreak. Skies
will briefly clouded in a few spots by convective blowoff from
convection to the W/SW, but some clear skies will also be seen
from time-to-time.

A very muggy and warm overnight period is on tap as temps dip to
the lower 70s for most spots. There may be some patchy light
fog development in river valleys and in areas that received
appreciable rainfall earlier today, but widespread VSBY
restrictions are not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Another hot and muggy day is in store for Tuesday with heat
indicies peaking near 100 degrees for most locations.

The area of high pressure will continue to expand westward
resulting in a slightly lower chance of storms in the afternoon
and early evening.

Min temperatures will be a little warmer than what`s expected
tonight, closer to 75 for most of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
With a large and slow moving area of high pressure centered to
the east, heat continues to be the main concern during the long
term. For Wednesday through Sunday, highs in the mid and upper
90s combined with dewpoints around 70 will produce peak apparent
temperatures ranging from 100 to 104. Overnight lows in the 70s
will only provide limited help. Based on those forecast model
predictions, our office has issued a heat advisory that is in
effect through Friday. Extending the heat advisory through next
weekend appears strongly possible. At some point, if apparent Ts
are forecast to go above 104, we will need to upgrade to an
excessive heat warning. There is relief on the horizon when an
upper trough and cold front bring an end to the extreme heat
next Monday, with highs retreating to the mid and upper 80s.

Chances for abatement from the heat due to precip appear to be
low. There is a chance for a few thunderstorms on Wednesday, and
again on Sunday ahead of the cold front. A better chance for
measurable precip will be on Sunday night and Monday surrounding
the cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain chances appear to have ended for the night across the
terminals. Only potential reduction will be at KLUK due to BR.
Just have an MVFR mention for this.

Mid and low level clouds will overspread the region again on
Tuesday. Additional rounds of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday afternoon/evening. Expecting
pulse storms once again, so only have a VCTS mention for now
given the limited coverage and timing challenges.

Winds remain below 10 kts from the south-southwest through the
period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Clark