Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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082 FXUS61 KILN 101740 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and cooler air settles in through Tuesday night. The cool air mass is replaced by much warmer air as the high pressure shifts to the east through midweek. The warming trend continues through the end of the week. A cold front approaches the region Friday, providing a brief interruption to the heat on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure builds in from the northwest through the afternoon and into tonight. Skies are expected to scatter late this afternoon/early this evening behind an upper level vorticity max. Clearing skies along with calming winds should allow favorable conditions for radiational cooling under the surface high. Forecast lows drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s areawide. Some patchy river valley fog is possible in sheltered locations. These lows are well below mid June averages across the Ohio Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure parks overhead Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds remain light and variable under the surface high along with fair weather skies. Temperatures stay below mid June averages and humidity values persist on the lower side for this time of year. Forecast highs on Tuesday are in the middle to upper 70s. Forecast lows on Tuesday night are in the middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure continues to work its way east at the start of the period, placing the Ohio Valley on the western periphery. This results in increased southerly low level flow around the backside of the high. Temperatures and Tds respond, with highs on Wednesday in the low 80s. Dry conditions remain in place during the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon we begin to feel warmer, with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s/low 90s. However, a disturbance near the Hudson Bay area will drag a cold front through the mid-Atlantic region Thursday night, resulting in in low end shower/storm chances for our area with some temperature moderation for Friday. Moisture is pretty meager with only a brief plume of higher PWATs moving through the area and overall QPF footprint isn`t much. Any remaining showers move out of the region on Friday and a slightly cooler airmass follows, resulting in high temperatures in the mid 80s (still 3-5 degrees above climatological normals) and overnight lows in the low 60s (near normal). Saturday and Saturday night are more of the same with dry conditions as high pressure moves in from the west. With the arrival of this high pressure and mid/upper level ridging, the heat will really be cranked up as we head into the end of the weekend and start of the following work week. High temperatures continue to trend into the 90s. The recently rolled out Heat Risk Tool indicates a "Moderate" risk (level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effecting cooling and/or adequate hydration)... visit heat.gov for additional details. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR ceilings developed across the area during the late morning behind a cold front. MVFR ceilings may persist into the early afternoon before lifting to VFR ceilings shortly after 1800z. Ceilings should continue to lift and scatter later this afternoon and into the evening as high pressure moves in from the northwest. Once ceilings go VFR, they should stay that way for the rest of the TAF period. Some river valley fog is possible at KLUK around 1100z Tuesday. Northwesterly winds persist through 0000z. Wind go light and variable after 0000z and remain that way through the rest of the TAF period OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Campbell