104
FXUS61 KILN 021047
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
647 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift off to the east today. A return to
southerly flow will bring warmer and a little more humidity to
the region. Hot and humid conditions are expected on Wednesday
along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a
cold front approaches from the northwest. This boundary will
then remain in the area on the Fourth of July. Embedded mid
level disturbances will interact with this boundary, resulting
in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. A stronger
weather system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio
region Friday into Friday night, continuing the threat for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A mid level ridge axis will build northeast from the lower
Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Great Lakes today. A
weak mid level disturbance will ripple east through this ridge,
bringing some mid and high level clouds. In addition, a FEW-SCT
cumulus clouds will develop along the Ohio River. The mid level
ridge and a return to southerly flow will bring warmer air along
with a little more humidity. Highs will range from the mid to
upper 80s north to near 90 along and south of the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, the mid level ridge axis will shift off to the
east. Lows tonight will be warmer in the upper 60s to the lower
70s. On Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to approach the
region from the northwest late in the day. Skies should start
out mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Southerly flow will bring
higher dewpoints into the region (lower to mid 70s). These
higher dewpoints, along with a little warmer temperatures, will
push heat indicies into the upper 90s to the lower 100s in the
afternoon. If confidence increases as we get closer, a Heat
Advisory may be needed at some point, especially for locations
along and south of the Ohio River. Will continue to mention it
in the HWO for now. As for the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to develop, coverage will be tied to what kind of
forcing mechanisms will interact with a moderately unstable
airmass and a weak/low end moderate deep layer shear
environment. At this time, that would be the cold front itself,
along with possible upstream outflow boundaries/MCVs from
upstream convection during the night and into the morning hours.
It appears coverage, scattered to numerous showers/storms, will
likely develop later in the afternoon, and then continue into
the overnight hours as aforementioned weak forcing persists. The
cold front will likely lay out west to east somewhere over our
northern CWFA by Thursday morning. SPC continues the slight risk
for severe storms for our CWFA for Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. The primary severe weather threat will be
damaging winds due to pcpn loading and wet microburst potential.
In addition, with pwats increasing to 2+ inches, heavy rainfall
will be possible which could result in localized flooding
issues. Will also keep mentioning these threats in the HWO. It
will be warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A slow moving boundary draped across the ILN area will be the
focus for showers and thunderstorms through the first portion of
the long term. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
indicated for Thursday as short wave energy on a westerly mid
level flow interacts with a large swath of deep moisture. Model
soundings show the potential for strong storms organized by
potent winds aloft, and for heavy rain from an atmosphere
containing 2 inches PWAT amid favorable warm cloud depth.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Friday
when a strong surface low and cold front swing through the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Low chances for showers and storms will linger on Saturday
behind the low pressure system. Mainly dry weather is expected
on Sunday as high pressure builds in. The threat for showers and
storms returns Monday in the moist and unstable flow ahead of
an upper trough.

Temperatures are forecast to be relatively consistent while
remaining close to normal. Highs will be mainly in the 80s each
day, with lows primarily in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

For today, a mid level ridge axis will build northeast from the
lower Mississippi River Valley into the middle Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes. A weak mid level disturbance rippling
through this ridge will bring a FEW-SCT mid/high clouds. In
addition, some FEW-SCT diurnal cumulus clouds will develop over
the southern CWFA after 18Z. Winds will veer from the east to
the south and increase to around 10 knots between 15Z and 18Z.

For tonight, the mid level ridge axis will shift a little east.
Some mid and high level clouds will encroach the region from
the west, mostly likely convective debris blow off clouds
originating from upstream thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman