545
FXUS61 KILN 020024
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
824 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift off to the east tonight through
Tuesday. This will lead to a return to summer-like conditions
along with chances for thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes this
afternoon will shift off to the east tonight as mid level
ridging begins to build in from the southwest. Some weak mid
level energy moving over the ridge will lead to high level
cloudiness at times tonight. Temperatures will remain seasonably
cool with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The surface high pressure will continue to push east through the
day on Tuesday as mid level ridging shifts slowly east across
the southeast US. Some high level clouds will again be possible
at times on Tuesday. In developing return flow across the area
through the day on Tuesday, afternoon highs will push into the
mid to upper 80s. We will also see surface dewpoints begin to
increase from the south through the day. Some mid level energy
moving into the ridge will lead to an increase in mid and high
level clouds later Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A hot, humid, and generally unsettled synoptic setup will be in
place over the Ohio Valley from Wednesday through at least Friday.
For Wednesday, moderately strong southerly flow should allow
temperatures to reach into the 90s thanks to a low passing well to
the north. The first half of the day should be dry, but a chance for
showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon. If
storms do develop, some could be strong since dynamics will be
enhanced by the low up in Canada. Thursday and Friday may feature
slightly moderated temperatures and weaker southerly flow with the
low moving further away from the Ohio Valley. Afternoon showers and
storms will be possible each afternoon with diurnal instability in
place.

On Friday night, a weak cold front is forecast to move in from the
west. High pressure builds in behind the front for the weekend
helping to cool temperatures slightly and lower afternoon rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF forecast period. High pressure
will build across the Great Lakes overnight through Tuesday.
With this dry airmass in place only expect some high level
clouds with scattered cumulus clouds Tuesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR