Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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855 FXUS61 KILN 241910 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 310 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley today. An upper level low and remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene provides chances of rainfall through the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Severe Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for a portion of the area until 8 pm. Over the last few hours, enough clearing has allowed for temperatures in northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio to climb into the upper 70s. As better synoptic lift arrives this afternoon, thunderstorms coverage is expected to continue increasing across the watch area, with the severe threat focused on the potential for damaging winds and large hail. Can`t rule out a tornado or two where conditions come together to support it. This briefly occurred northeast of Louisville, KY, but the rotation did not persist. Outside the watch area, locations across eastern Indiana and west-central Ohio will still experience thunderstorms later this afternoon as the surface low pressure passes to the north. Still can`t rule a tornado here, but overall storm coverage and severity is expected to be lower. East of the watch (Scioto Valley), convective intensity should decrease into the evening hours, likely reducing the potential for severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorms and rain are still forecast, and if needed, the watch will be extended farther east. Rest of tonight: As thunderstorms decrease in coverage this evening, low clouds and some fog potential become the main focus. The upper level trough digging southward out of the Midwest prevents the frontal boundary from moving through the area, keeping the area in moist southerly flow. Mid and upper level clouds increase within the divergent flow aloft, but closer to the Indiana and Ohio border, there will be a better chance for less cloud cover, helping fog to develop. Confidence is still quite low on if stratus will be the dominating feature. Across the Scioto Valley and northeast Kentucky, the better divergent flow and mid- level moisture advection overnight night supports rainfall mentions into the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Quite the complex upper level pattern throughout the short term and then eventually the long term periods with an elongated trough stretching southward from Canada all the way to the lower Mississippi Valley. A closed low in the middle Mississippi Valley provides constant mid and upper level moisture advection as it stalls Wednesday night. While overall rainfall amounts are expected to be light, there is a long duration of shower or light rain chances throughout the entire day, especially east of the I-75 corridor. A weak surface boundary moving slowly southeastward into eastern Indiana and western Ohio may spark a few showers into the area during the afternoon, but the boundary will dissolve as high pressure builds in across the lower Midwest Wednesday evening. By late Wednesday night, the combination of the now cut-off upper level low and Tropical Cyclone Helene results in a pressure pattern where a weak high pressure is positioned across the Great Lakes and Midwest with the low pressure to the south. Upper level diffluent flow still persists over southeast portions of the area primarily along and south of the I-71 corridor. As a result, mentions for rain persist, but overall rainfall amounts remain light. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Our region will be wedged between two mid level closed lows on Thursday. One will be spinning over the lower Mississippi River Valley while the other low will be pivoting east across southeast Canada and New England. Clouds and a chance of showers will persist, with the highest PoPs along and south of the Ohio River. Highs will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. The track of Helene is coming into better focus, which it has now shifted more east into the middle Ohio Valley than the previous track which was more west into Missouri. That brings the remnants across our area Thursday night into Friday, with the system weakening and becoming absorbed into the mid level closed low to our southwest Friday night. This should bring a good chance of needed rain to our drought stricken region. Temperatures will be warm at night, in the 60s, with highs on Friday in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Winds will be gusty on Friday, 25 mph to 25 mph due to a tightening pressure gradient. For the upcoming weekend, a chance of showers/slight chance of thunderstorms, will continue as the center of the mid level closed low slowly meanders east across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be persistent, lows in the 60s, and highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. The mid level closed low is forecast to be pushed east by Monday/Tuesday as another large scale mid level trough digs southeast into the Great Lakes. Chance of rain will be lower as the first low moves away. Temperatures will cool some. Lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s will be followed by highs in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thunderstorm activity lull early this afternoon, but development is already beginning again across southern & western Indiana as well as western Kentucky. This activity will quickly move northeast, impacting CVG/LUK first, then ILN. DAY may see additional development moving east out of Indiana in the next few hours. Maintained TEMPOs for all sites, including CMH/LCK with a later arrival time there. This thunderstorm activity decreases in coverage quickly this evening, with a few remnant showers around after 00Z. During the overnight, low level clouds are forecast to develop, as well as pocket of fog. IFR/MVFR forecast as all sites, with timing adjusted slight faster (~07 to 08Z) from previous forecast. Conditions gradually improve between 14Z and 18Z Wednesday. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Wednesday night. Wind gusts between 30 to 35 mph possible Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McGinnis NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...Hickman AVIATION...McGinnis