904
FXUS63 KILX 260822
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
322 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger across central
  Illinois today before a cold front passes. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- The next chance for beneficial rainfall will arrive Friday into
  Saturday as another cold front passes through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A short-wave trough evident on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over
northern Minnesota will dig into the Great Lakes today, pushing a
cold front southward into Illinois. Thanks to extensive cloud
cover, the pre-frontal airmass will remain relatively stable with
NAM SBCAPEs generally under 1000J/kg. Despite the meager instability,
lift along/ahead of the front will be sufficient to trigger
scattered showers/thunder across the area...with the greatest
areal coverage occurring along/south of I-70 this afternoon as an
MCV from ongoing convection across Kansas/Missouri approaches from
the west. Have therefore carried low chance PoPs across much of
the KILX CWA..with likely PoPs (60%) focused along/south of I-70.
High temperatures will mostly remain in the lower 80s, but will
climb into the middle 80s along/northwest of the Illinois River
where partial sunshine will be observed by mid to late afternoon.

High pressure will build into the region tonight, leading to
clearing skies and cool overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower
60s. Abundant sunshine and comfortable late June weather will be
on tap for Thursday as high temperatures only reach the lower to
middle 80s.

Barnes

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A progressive upper flow pattern will dominate the CONUS
throughout the extended...leading to near to slightly below normal
temperatures, as well as periodic rain chances. As the next in a
series of short-wave troughs tracks along the U.S./Canada border,
a cold front will approach from the west late Thursday night.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front in
an increasingly moist airmass characterized by precipitable water
values increasing to around 2 inches on Friday...with the highest
PoPs focused along/north of I-72. As the front pushes into central
Illinois, thunderstorms will become more numerous across the board
Friday night into Saturday morning before the boundary settles
southeastward into the Ohio River Valley. Initial storm total rainfall
projections suggest widespread amounts of 0.25 to 1.00...with
locations along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line
potentially picking up 1 to 2 inches.

Once the front passes, a return to cool/dry weather is expected
for Sunday and Monday as highs drop into the upper 70s and lower
80s and lows dip into the middle to upper 50s. After that, another
short-wave will come into the picture by the middle of next
week...bringing the next chance for rain by Tuesday.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Convection is weakening over some of the TAF sites, but lightning
is still present underneath the cirrus shield of the storms and
affecting PIA, BMI, and SPI. CMI and DEC are not seeing any precip
and think that will continue through the overnight hours. Will
have thunderstorm on station at PIA, BMI, and SPI, but not DEC &
CMI. Storms will only last about 1-2hrs. MVFR cigs around 3kft
will advect into the area and affect all TAF sites during the
overnight hours. Cigs will rise during the late morning hours and
then become clear tomorrow late afternoon/early evening. A front
is moving south through the area, but winds are relatively light
and will remain that way through the night. Tomorrow, winds will
become northerly and be around 8-12kts. Light north winds are
expected tomorrow evening at all sites.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$