652
FXUS63 KILX 242037
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers will continue early this evening, mainly across
  southeast Illinois and southern parts of central Illinois, then
  dissipate after sunset. Rainfall amounts will be less than one
  quarter of an inch.

- A prolonged period of unsettled weather is expected late this
  work week into early next week, with rainfall starting Thursday
  afternoon and Thursday night and continuing through the weekend
  and into the first part of next week. The heaviest rainfall is
  expected from Friday night through Sunday when hurricane
  remnants arrive in the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Isolated showers will continue to move across southern parts of
the CWA and southeast IL through the evening hours, however should
dissipate as the sun sets and as the upper level system moves
south across MO. The sfc low that moved across the CWA should also
continue to move northeast into the Great Lakes area, across MI,
pulling the rest of the pcpn with it. Some clearing of the clouds
is also expected overnight and with the lighter winds, light fog
is expected to develop across the western half of the CWA.
Restrictions should be limited to around 3 miles or better. Late
this evening through tomorrow morning should be dry, but with the
mid level trough still near the eastern and southeastern parts of
the CWA, additional showers are possible (20% chance) from late
morning tomorrow through tomorrow afternoon. Any showers will
dissipate tomorrow evening as the sun sets...like this evening.

Temps tonight through tomorrow night will be around or slightly
below normal for this time of year.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The long term focus will be on the hurricane as it moves onshore
along the FL Gulf Coast starting Thursday and how it interacts
with the upper level cut-off system sitting over the lower to
middle Mississippi valley. Models have some differences on timing
and location of precip advecting into the southeast parts of the
CWA later this week, with some showing precip arriving as early as
Thursday morning to afternoon. Other models show precip arriving
late Thursday night and slowly increasing to the north through the
end of the week and into the weekend. How the upper level system
and the hurricane remnants blend together is another story, and
again the models differ some on that. However, no matter the
outcome of the blending/interaction, an extended period of
unsettled weather will be expected from late this week, through
the weekend and into the beginning of next week. The slow moving
upper level system seems to be the biggest influence on keeping
precip chances around while the hurricane remnants appear to get
caught up in the upper level system as it slowly moves east-
northeast. Another mid level trough is forecast to drop into the
great lakes region Tuesday, which could keep a small chance of
precip (20% chance) in the area.

Temps are expected to remain slightly below normal or near normal
through the extended period.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

MVFR conditions will prevail for the next 2hrs at PIA, 4hrs at
SPI and 5-6hrs at DEC and CMI...except for BMI, which will be IFR
for the next 2hrs and then become MVFR at 20z. This afternoon/this
evening, VFR conditions will occur at all sites with skies
clearing during the early morning hours tomorrow. When this
occurs, light fog will develop for a few hours at PIA, BMI, SPI,
and DEC. Though conditions scatter out at CMI, it will be late
enough that fog will not develop. Light rain has ended at most
locations, except BMI, but based on radar, am going to keep VCSH
at most sites for a few hours...just not at PIA and SPI. Winds
will be west to northwest through the period with speeds less than
10kts.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$