Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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051 FXUS63 KILX 130206 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 906 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures continue tomorrow. - A prolonged period of hot and humid conditions begins Thursday and continues into next week. Air temperatures will range from the upper 80s to middle 90s with heat indices reaching to around 100 Sunday and Monday, posing a threat for heat-related illnesses. - Storm chances (30-70%) return late Thursday afternoon into evening. Some of these storms could be severe with strong damaging winds and very large hail possible...mainly during the evening hours. && .UPDATE... Issued at 833 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Have opted to lower overnight temperatures a couple degrees across the region. Our 00z sounding shows a robust dry layer extending up to about 700 mb, with a surface dewpoint around 60 degF. With light winds and mostly clear skies overnight, radiational cooling should allow temperatures to fall into the mid-to-lower 60s across a chunk of the area. With data from the 00z convective-allowing models (CAMs) just now trickling in, any updates regarding Thursday evening convection will be noted with the overnight forecast package. MJA && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Quiet weather is expected for most of the night, before remnants of convection from storms in developing in the northern Miss Valley move into the northwest parts of the CWA late tonight. The showers and storms late tonight will continue into tomorrow morning but should diminish around 10am, and remain in the far north and northwest parts of the CWA. Then dry weather is expected late tomorrow morning into afternoon. The front, currently in far northern parts of the US, will arrive into IL tomorrow afternoon. Models are not in agreement with timing of convection tomorrow afternoon, but a blend puts precip arriving late tomorrow afternoon in the far northwest parts of the CWA. The convection will really get going and continue to move southeast into the CWA tomorrow evening. Instability and shear look very good for severe weather with these storms tomorrow night, with some models indicating the severe weather threat could be large hail and damaging winds. Highest pops will be in the north and central parts of the CWA with only chance pops getting down to southeast IL. Temps will get quite warm tomorrow, reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows in the 60s Auten .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Dry weather will prevail into the extended forecast period with rain chances returning Tue and Wed of next week. Temps will also become very warm, into the 90s, starting on Sunday and continuing into next week. Even through dwpts will be in the 60s during the period, heat index values are still expected to reach to around 100 for Sun and Mon. Auten && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 An area of decaying thunderstorms will drop into portions of southeast Iowa and northern Illinois overnight, leading to increased cloud cover over our central Illinois terminals. These will mostly be high- to mid-level clouds, meaning VFR is likely to prevail through Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is anticipated to develop Thursday evening across the region. Due to uncertainty in timing and placement, have opted to withhold PROB30 mention for thunderstorms with this TAF cycle. This will be re-evaluated for the 06z TAF issuance. MJA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$