836
FXUS63 KILX 260448
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1148 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight Risk (15% within 25 miles) of severe storms today and
  tonight, tapering to a Marginal Risk (5%) Wednesday across
  southeast Illinois.

- Expect a break from the heat starting Wednesday with highs
  generally in the lower to mid 80s through Friday. There will be
  a brief break from the humidity briefly Thursday with dew
  points dipping into the 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Storms continue over parts of the area, but appear to be
weakening as they move to the south-southeast Will update pops/wx
to reflect current situation for the rest of the night.

Auten

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

As of 2pm this afternoon, storms are ongoing from near Mt Sterling
to Springfield in west central Illinois, and from Effingham to
Dennison in east central/southeast Illinois. These storms have
kicked out an outflow boundary that has surged well ahead, except
for the storms in east central Illinois which are riding the
outflow boundary and consequently have been much stronger. Ahead
of the outflow boundary, SPC meso-analysis suggests that around
3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE is present coinciding with marginal
effective shear of around 25-30kt. There parameters continue to
support a chance for severe weather, but so far most of the
storms quickly fall behind the boundary where the severe threat is
much lower. While the outflow boundary continues to surge south
and southwest, it is encountering moderate WSW flow gusting to
around 20kt which will help impede its progress. Until there is
notable slowing of the boundary, storms forming on the front will
continue to fall behind and become elevated with low end wind/hail
threat. 18Z WoFS run suggests that new severe convection is most
likely near the I-70 corridor through 22Z, then diminishes in
coverage through 00Z as storms exit the forecast area.

This evening, a modest low level jet will set up across portions
of Kansas and Missouri with strongest focus near the IA/MO state
line initially. This should cause a renewed uptick in
thunderstorm activity within a still strongly unstable atmosphere
(MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg per latest RAP). These storms
followed the cloud bearing flow and instability axis east-
southeast into portions of west central Illinois mid to late this
evening and elsewhere across central Illinois overnight. Some of
this activity may end of being shunted further south due to
ongoing convection, so will have to monitor trends with these
storms as some could once again be severe. Several CAMs indicate
these storms will grow upscale with a QLCS impacting areas from
eastern KS into central IL, though the further eastern solutions
may not pan out due to ongoing convection this afternoon.

Main H5 trof and attendant cold front (possibly locally enhanced
by remnant MCV) is poised to move across central Illinois
Wednesday morning and afternoon. Some modest destabilization is
possible across portions of SE Illinois by early afternoon, but it
remains uncertain if storms will be able to tap into this before
exiting the area with the cold front. Better chances for severe
storms are in place just S/E of the forecast area but will need to
keep a close eye on the counties south of I-70 before frontal
passage midday Wednesday.

High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest Wednesday behind
the departing cold front and precip chances will diminish
accordingly from the northwest through the day. Temperatures and
humidity levels will turn briefly more comfortable particularly
Thursday under the influence of this air mass. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 80s both days with dew points eventually
bottoming out in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday.

As the ridge axis shifts to the east coast late in the week,
return flow will overspread the lower and mid Mississippi River
Valley with dew points building back up to around 70 degrees
Friday. The chance for showers and storms will accompany the
increase in humidity as mid level warm air advection overspread
the area Friday, followed by more showers and storms as a cold
front sweeps across the region Saturday. Both the GFS and ECMWF
indicate that portions of the region will have instability and
shear favorable for severe storms, but details will have to be
ironed out in the coming days.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Convection is weakening over some of the TAF sites, but lightning
is still present underneath the cirrus shield of the storms and
affecting PIA, BMI, and SPI. CMI and DEC are not seeing any precip
and think that will continue through the overnight hours. Will
have thunderstorm on station at PIA, BMI, and SPI, but not DEC &
CMI. Storms will only last about 1-2hrs. MVFR cigs around 3kft
will advect into the area and affect all TAF sites during the
overnight hours. Cigs will rise during the late morning hours and
then become clear tomorrow late afternoon/early evening. A front
is moving south through the area, but winds are relatively light
and will remain that way through the night. Tomorrow, winds will
become northerly and be around 8-12kts. Light north winds are
expected tomorrow evening at all sites.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$