Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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081 FXUS63 KILX 161543 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1043 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like warmth will continue through the weekend with highs ranging from the middle 80s to near 90. - Precipitation chances don`t return until this weekend/early next week with a series of frontal systems. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1045 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Forecast looks on track today and no update needed aside from minor adjustments to sky cover grids. 1030 mb high pressure over central and southern New England and ridging westward across the Great Lakes region will continue to influence our weather today, with dry and very warm conditions, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F, similar to past two days. Normal high temperatures for mid Sep is around 80F over central IL. Once difference will be lower dewpoints that continue to advect in from the east/se. Currently dewpoints range from the low to mid 50s over Vermilion and Edgar counties, to the low to mid 60s west of I-57. Dewpoints should slip into the 50s across CWA during this afternoon and limit scattered cumulus cloud development to mainly areas west of I-57 with few cumulus clouds in eastern IL. Gentle east winds of 5-10 mph prevail today. 07 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 An expansive area of surface ridging centered over the northeast US extends westward through Illinois. In the upper levels, a strong ~588 dm 500 mb high is anchored over the northeast CONUS with a pair of upper lows tied to tropical systems over the southeast US, creating a Rex blocking pattern. This will keep warm and dry weather ongoing here through at least the end of the week. Dewpoints will come down significantly today as drier air currently situated over eastern Indiana and Ohio advects westward. This will bring cooler overnight lows the next several days with temperatures bottoming out in the 50s or upper 40s. Potential tropical cyclone eight will move onshore the coast of the Carolinas tonight, though will come to a halt by midweek as it encounters strong ridging to the north. Moisture associated with this tropical system will extend as far west as Ohio/Kentucky, but will stay far enough away from us to keep things dry. Precipitation chances begin to return this weekend tied to a pair of frontal systems. The NBM shows low chances of precipitation as early as Friday and continuing through early next week. However, this is likely temporally overdone and will continue to be refined in the coming days as the upper features are sampled better. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place through the TAF period. Expect FEW to SCT cirrus paired with light easterly winds. NMA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$