944
FXUS63 KIND 051722
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
122 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms through the evening
- Westerly wind gusts to 30 mph tomorrow
- Slightly below normal temperatures this weekend with occasional
  rain chances

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The bowing segment that brought the isolated strong wind gusts to
eastern Illinois is now moving into the Fort Wayne area with the
most organized remainder area of convection now moving into west
central Indiana.  The morning convection didn`t leave much of an
outflow boundary for convection to initiate off of, but forcing
along the arriving frontal passage should be enough for scattered to
numerous convection from 3PM to 7PM.

Satellite shows some breaks in the clouds allowing for temperatures
to rise to near 80 but the morning convection has limited lapse
rates above the boundary layer which is leading to only modest CAPE
values of 500-1000 J/kg. Shear will gradually ramp up ahead of the
front but without good organization, convection is generally
expected to remain sub-severe with an isolated damaging wind gust
being the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Tonight.

For thoughts on the forecast through the evening, see the mesoscale
discussion above.

There may be a few lingering showers across southern Indiana through
the early overnight hours, but generally expect dry conditions
through the night with clearing skies as high pressure begins to
move in behind the exiting cold front. There may be a few pockets of
fog across river valleys in southern Indiana where winds are
expected to be near calm, but areas further to the north winds
should remain high enough to limit fog formation to only highly
sheltered areas. Fog formation will also be dependent on how much
rain ends up falling across that portion of the forecast area which
remains uncertain at this time.

Thursday.

Pleasant conditions are expected for tomorrow with dewpoints in the
upper 40s to low 50s which is nearly 20 degrees below where they
have been today. This dry surface air will help to limit the diurnal
cu and with models showing a very dry column above the top of the
boundary later, expect mostly clear skies for much of the forecast
area with only some mid to high level clouds across the northern
counties where the jet stream will be advecting some slightly higher
moisture. A deep mixing layer to around 6000ft will allow for wind
gusts as high as 30 mph through the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Thursday Night Through Sunday.

Dry and quiet weather is expected to continue into Thursday night
with both the surface and upper level flow gradually becoming more
northwesterly through the night as the upper level low moves into
the Eastern Great Lakes.  Stronger wind gusts are expected to return
again Friday afternoon with another round of deep mixing leading to
wind gusts to 30 mph at the top of the boundary layer reaching the
surface. Models have begun to shift the surface flow going into
Saturday with less northwesterly flow keeping temperatures a bit
higher than previously expected along with a limited risk for
showers Saturday night as a weak wave moves around the broader low
pressure system. There is a fair amount of uncertainty on the timing
of this system but at some point between late Saturday and early
Sunday much of the forecast area should see at least some light
rain. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through
the rest of the weekend with northwesterly flow returning after the
rain Saturday night.

Monday Through Wednesday.

The pattern remains quiet through the early portions of the work
week with weak ridging building in behind the exiting low pressure
system. Model spread becomes more significant going into Wednesday
which keeps forecast confidence very low but there is at least some
potential for rain to return as another low pressure system sinks
southward from Canada and the LLJ begins to advect warmer and more
humid air into the area.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Impacts:

-MVFR cigs/vsbys during TSRA this afternoon.
-Southerly wind gusts to 20kts this afternoon, up to 25kts Thursday
 afternoon.

Discussion:

Scattered convection is ongoing across central Indiana with
gradually increasing coverage through 19Z before ending by 01Z.
Thunderstorms will generally be within the vicinity in that
timeframe and will handle the TSRA mention in TEMPO groups. Cigs
should generally remain VFR but MVFR to IFR vsbys are possible in
the heaviest showers. Southerly wind gusts to 20kts this afternoon
with near calm winds during the overnight. Winds then will become
more westerly tomorrow morning with gusts to 25kts during the
afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...White
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White