676
FXUS63 KIND 160152
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
952 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid trend starts Sunday, with potentially hazardous heat
  into next week

- Low chance for a few showers or storms Monday and Tuesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The current pattern on the periphery of ridge with enough gradient
for light winds, and some cirrus and near climo temperatures is one
that models generally handle well. Blended models are accepted
without modification for temperatures tonight. The forecast is on
track with no changes needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Through Tonight...

An upper level ridge will move across central Indiana through
tonight while high pressure to the east will continue its
influence. This will keep the weather quiet across the area.

Some cirrus will move across the top of the ridge, perhaps bringing
partly cloudy conditions to mainly northern portions of the area
at times tonight.

Winds will diminish some tonight, and drier air will remain in the
lower atmosphere for much of the area. This will allow temperatures
to fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s for lows most areas.

Sunday...

As a surface high moves farther east on Sunday, winds across central
Indiana will become southerly. This will bring in a warmer and more
humid airmass into the region.

Plentiful sunshine will then boost temperatures into the lower and
middle 90s for highs. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s in the
west and southwest, where the highest dewpoints will be.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Hot and Humid Much of Next Week...

An upper level high will be across the eastern USA throughout
the long term period, with anomalously high heights. This will lead to
hot temperatures, which will extend into central Indiana. Excessive
heat may occur a few times, but the prolonged nature of the heat
could lead to a cumulative effect, especially on vulnerable
populations.

Lower to middle 90s will continue on Monday, but some moisture will
creep into the area. This will allow for the possibility of a few
pop-up afternoon thunderstorms. This moisture will also produce heat
indices near 100 degrees.

For Tuesday and somewhat into Wednesday, a plume of deeper moisture
will move north on the back side of the upper high into the area.
This will produce more clouds. Also, mid level temperatures will
remain cool enough that some isolated to scattered convection will
pop-up, especially west where the deeper moisture will be. The
combination of clouds and convection will keep temperatures cooler
than Monday, but still very warm to hot. Heat indices will be in the
90s.

For Thursday into Friday, the upper high will expand west into the
area, bringing back temperatures in the mid 90s. Dewpoints may be
lower thanks to the moisture plume being pushed west, but it may not
take much to have heat indices to around 100.

The upper high may start to break down on Saturday and beyond, but
models differ on timing and how much it breaks down. For now will
continue with highs in the 90s, but with lower confidence.

The lower confidence for temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday
(with models showing a wide spread in between 25th and 75th
percentiles on temperatures) precludes any issuance of excessive
heat products at this time. However, will still have to keep a close
eye on the cumulative effects of the heat this week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Few to scattered cumulus coverage can be expected Sunday afternoon.
Winds may occasionally gust to 15-17 knots during the warmest part
of the day. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BRB
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...BRB