Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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383 FXUS63 KIND 161416 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1016 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued Dry, Mostly Sunny and Hot Today. - Mostly Clear tonight. - No Rain this week. - Afternoon RH values near or below 30% through Tuesday. && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 GOES-16 visible satellite imagery was showing clear skies across central Indiana by benefit of a very dry column associated with subsidence from a stagnant Rex Block. Cloud shield from the southeastern low pressure system was well southeast of central Indiana while additional cloud cover was west of the area, across west central Illinois. Meanwhile, Hi-Res soundings and cu development progs suggest there will be little to no clouds across central Indiana again today which combined with mixing should allow temperatures to reach the 75th percentile DESI grand ensemble 2m temperatures in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. These temperatures are well above normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Synopsis: Surface analysis this morning showed strong high pressure in place east of New England. This large high continued to control the weather across much of the eastern half of the nation, with a surface ridge that extended west across the Great Lakes to Wisconsin. Light easterly surface flow was in place. A tropical system was found off the coast of the Carolinas. GOES16 imagery shows clear skies across Central Indiana. Dew points were in the dry 40s and low 50s. Aloft, the upper pattern remained rather unchained, with a deep trough in place over the western CONUS and the large stacked high in place over the northeast. This was resulting southwest flow over the Rockies and the western plains pushing well north of Indiana to Ontario and Quebec, keeping any forcing dynamics from tracking across Indiana. Today and Tonight - Models show little overall change in the ongoing pattern across Central Indiana through Tonight. Forecast soundings maintain a very dry column with subsidence. Models suggest the surface ridging to the north to drift southward today and tonight. This will again enhance the ongoing subsidence. The previously mentioned tropical system to the southeast will begin to advance tonight west today and tonight, but will not impact or reach Central Indiana today or tonight. This systems impact by midweek may only amount to a few clouds. Thus overall, another sunny day and clear night will be expected. With little change in the overall air mass, highs in the upper 80s and lows near 60 will be expected, quite similar to ongoing persistence. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Quiet weather conditions are expected to continue through much of the extended due to a stagnant upper level pattern. The stagnant pattern is keeping the region under the influence of upper level ridging and surface high pressure which will greatly limit any potential for measurable precipitation. One interesting feature to watch is Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 currently off the coast of the Carolinas. Mean flow from upper ridging centered over the Northeast should help the disturbance drift northwest towards southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic possibly bringing some minor impacts to the forecast this week. Precipitation looks unlikely due to moisture getting wrung out from the Appalachians and having to fight with subsidence induced dry air over central Indiana. However, an increase in clouds is expected Tuesday-Thursday from the approaching vort max. Look for slightly cooler highs during this period, mainly over eastern portions of the area where the greatest cloud cover should be. A few stray showers cannot be completely ruled out around midweek just yet, but lack of support in model guidance leads to very low confidence. By late this week, upper level ridging amplifies over the eastern CONUS leading to less cloud cover and a slight warm up. Large scale subsidence will allow dry conditions to persist with no rain in sight exacerbating the drought. Temperatures are generally going to be in the 80s this week. The warmest days should be late week when the upper ridge amplifies. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1016 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Impacts: - None Discussion: A stagnant Rex Block and a very dry column will lead to continued VFR flying conditions with little or no cloud cover. Winds will be from the east less than 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The dry conditions and trends suggest the MinRH will fall to around 25 to 30% this afternoon as the fuel moisture drops below 8%. That said, 20 foot winds are only expected to peak at 5 to 8 knots. So, although there is a concern for fires to pop up but wildfire spread is not a huge concern. Conditions will be similar Tuesday afternoon regarding fire danger. Some municipalities in central Indiana have activated a burn ban. Exercise caution if burning today as fire weather conditions will remain enhanced. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...MK SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...Melo AVIATION...MK FIRE WEATHER...MK