Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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533 FXUS63 KIND 060530 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 130 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Westerly wind gusts to 30 mph tomorrow - Slightly below normal temperatures this weekend with occasional rain chances && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 958 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The actual cold front was moving into the northwest forecast area this evening, with dewpoints falling to around 60 behind it, along with clearing skies. Southeast of the front, widely scattered showers continued in the humid airmass. Although there remained some CAPE, lightning has moved out of central Indiana to the east, where better forcing is. Removed thunder mention from the forecast given the lack of lightning in recent history and with CAPE continuing to decrease as the evening progresses. Kept low PoPs for showers for the remainder of the evening ahead of the cold front. Some upper energy/secondary cold front will approach the northwest forecast area late tonight. Lack of moisture should keep showers at bay, so will keep the forecast dry for now but did increase the clouds some. Across the far southern forecast area, the drier air may not arrive before some patchy fog could form overnight. Not expecting significant impacts at the moment, but did add some patchy fog far south given potential and some lower visibilities in hi-res guidance. Temperatures look good so didn`t make any significant changes. && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)... Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Tonight. For thoughts on the forecast through the evening, see the mesoscale discussion above. There may be a few lingering showers across southern Indiana through the early overnight hours, but generally expect dry conditions through the night with clearing skies as high pressure begins to move in behind the exiting cold front. There may be a few pockets of fog across river valleys in southern Indiana where winds are expected to be near calm, but areas further to the north winds should remain high enough to limit fog formation to only highly sheltered areas. Fog formation will also be dependent on how much rain ends up falling across that portion of the forecast area which remains uncertain at this time. Thursday. Pleasant conditions are expected for tomorrow with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s which is nearly 20 degrees below where they have been today. This dry surface air will help to limit the diurnal cu and with models showing a very dry column above the top of the boundary later, expect mostly clear skies for much of the forecast area with only some mid to high level clouds across the northern counties where the jet stream will be advecting some slightly higher moisture. A deep mixing layer to around 6000ft will allow for wind gusts as high as 30 mph through the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Thursday Night Through Sunday. Dry and quiet weather is expected to continue into Thursday night with both the surface and upper level flow gradually becoming more northwesterly through the night as the upper level low moves into the Eastern Great Lakes. Stronger wind gusts are expected to return again Friday afternoon with another round of deep mixing leading to wind gusts to 30 mph at the top of the boundary layer reaching the surface. Models have begun to shift the surface flow going into Saturday with less northwesterly flow keeping temperatures a bit higher than previously expected along with a limited risk for showers Saturday night as a weak wave moves around the broader low pressure system. There is a fair amount of uncertainty on the timing of this system but at some point between late Saturday and early Sunday much of the forecast area should see at least some light rain. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through the rest of the weekend with northwesterly flow returning after the rain Saturday night. Monday Through Wednesday. The pattern remains quiet through the early portions of the work week with weak ridging building in behind the exiting low pressure system. Model spread becomes more significant going into Wednesday which keeps forecast confidence very low but there is at least some potential for rain to return as another low pressure system sinks southward from Canada and the LLJ begins to advect warmer and more humid air into the area. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 130 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Impacts: - Possible MVFR visibilities at the outlying sites for a few hours near daybreak. - Wind gusts 22-26KT from around 280 degrees during the day on Thursday. Discussion: Aside from a post frontal patch of lower cloud and isolated visibility restrictions impinging upon BMG, VFR conditions have returned to all sites at this hour. The initial cold front has cleared the area, but the moisture discontinuity remains with a secondary cold front expected later today. Thus, some fog will be possible at the outlying sites overnight, though it remains to be seen how a thin band of midlevel cloud along that boundary may impact this. For now, will carry a TEMPO for MVFR fog, save for BMG which appears likely to see at least brief IFR conditions. All sites will return to VFR by 12-13Z. Winds will become gusty today out of the west, with gusts as high as 26KT or so, generally from around 280 degrees. This will persist through the day and dissipate in typical diurnal fashion this evening. Scattered to broken VFR cumulus will develop, based around 6KFT. Some downtrend in cloud can be expected late in the afternoon as drier air works into the region. The cumulus will also dissipate in the evening as is typical, with some high cloud overnight tonight. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ UPDATE...50 SHORT TERM...White LONG TERM...White AVIATION...Nield