644
FXUS63 KIND 060158
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
958 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Westerly wind gusts to 30 mph tomorrow
- Slightly below normal temperatures this weekend with occasional
  rain chances

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The actual cold front was moving into the northwest forecast area
this evening, with dewpoints falling to around 60 behind it, along
with clearing skies.

Southeast of the front, widely scattered showers continued in the
humid airmass. Although there remained some CAPE, lightning has
moved out of central Indiana to the east, where better forcing is.

Removed thunder mention from the forecast given the lack of
lightning in recent history and with CAPE continuing to decrease as
the evening progresses. Kept low PoPs for showers for the remainder
of the evening ahead of the cold front.

Some upper energy/secondary cold front will approach the northwest
forecast area late tonight. Lack of moisture should keep showers at
bay, so will keep the forecast dry for now but did increase the
clouds some.

Across the far southern forecast area, the drier air may not arrive
before some patchy fog could form overnight. Not expecting
significant impacts at the moment, but did add some patchy fog far
south given potential and some lower visibilities in hi-res guidance.

Temperatures look good so didn`t make any significant changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Tonight.

For thoughts on the forecast through the evening, see the mesoscale
discussion above.

There may be a few lingering showers across southern Indiana through
the early overnight hours, but generally expect dry conditions
through the night with clearing skies as high pressure begins to
move in behind the exiting cold front. There may be a few pockets of
fog across river valleys in southern Indiana where winds are
expected to be near calm, but areas further to the north winds
should remain high enough to limit fog formation to only highly
sheltered areas. Fog formation will also be dependent on how much
rain ends up falling across that portion of the forecast area which
remains uncertain at this time.

Thursday.

Pleasant conditions are expected for tomorrow with dewpoints in the
upper 40s to low 50s which is nearly 20 degrees below where they
have been today. This dry surface air will help to limit the diurnal
cu and with models showing a very dry column above the top of the
boundary later, expect mostly clear skies for much of the forecast
area with only some mid to high level clouds across the northern
counties where the jet stream will be advecting some slightly higher
moisture. A deep mixing layer to around 6000ft will allow for wind
gusts as high as 30 mph through the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Thursday Night Through Sunday.

Dry and quiet weather is expected to continue into Thursday night
with both the surface and upper level flow gradually becoming more
northwesterly through the night as the upper level low moves into
the Eastern Great Lakes.  Stronger wind gusts are expected to return
again Friday afternoon with another round of deep mixing leading to
wind gusts to 30 mph at the top of the boundary layer reaching the
surface. Models have begun to shift the surface flow going into
Saturday with less northwesterly flow keeping temperatures a bit
higher than previously expected along with a limited risk for
showers Saturday night as a weak wave moves around the broader low
pressure system. There is a fair amount of uncertainty on the timing
of this system but at some point between late Saturday and early
Sunday much of the forecast area should see at least some light
rain. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through
the rest of the weekend with northwesterly flow returning after the
rain Saturday night.

Monday Through Wednesday.

The pattern remains quiet through the early portions of the work
week with weak ridging building in behind the exiting low pressure
system. Model spread becomes more significant going into Wednesday
which keeps forecast confidence very low but there is at least some
potential for rain to return as another low pressure system sinks
southward from Canada and the LLJ begins to advect warmer and more
humid air into the area.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Impacts:

- Periods of MVFR ceilings possible early at most sites
- A few showers will linger early at KIND/KBMG
- Gusts near 25kt on Thursday afternoon

Discussion:

Main area of rain will be east of most sites by valid time, but some
lingering showers will be around KIND/KBMG early in the period.
Areas of MVFR ceilings linger behind the rain, so will include a
TEMPO at KIND/KBMG early.

Clouds will scatter out this evening. Some cumulus will pop up on
Thursday, and winds will become gusty as mixing occurs.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...50