383
FXUS63 KIND 161416
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1016 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued Dry, Mostly Sunny and Hot Today.
- Mostly Clear tonight.
- No Rain this week.
- Afternoon RH values near or below 30% through Tuesday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

GOES-16 visible satellite imagery was showing clear skies across
central Indiana by benefit of a very dry column associated with
subsidence from a stagnant Rex Block. Cloud shield from the
southeastern low pressure system was well southeast of central
Indiana while additional cloud cover was west of the area, across
west central Illinois. Meanwhile, Hi-Res soundings and cu
development progs suggest there will be little to no clouds across
central Indiana again today which combined with mixing should allow
temperatures to reach the 75th percentile DESI grand ensemble 2m
temperatures in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. These
temperatures are well above normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Synopsis:

Surface analysis this morning showed strong high pressure in place
east of New England. This large high continued to control the
weather across much of the eastern half of the nation, with a
surface ridge that extended west across the Great Lakes to
Wisconsin. Light easterly surface flow was in place. A tropical
system was found off the coast of the Carolinas. GOES16 imagery
shows clear skies across Central Indiana. Dew points were in the dry
40s and low 50s. Aloft, the upper pattern remained rather unchained,
with a deep trough in place over the western CONUS and the large
stacked high in place over the northeast. This was resulting
southwest flow over the Rockies and the western plains pushing well
north of Indiana to Ontario and Quebec, keeping any forcing dynamics
from tracking across Indiana.

Today and Tonight -

Models show little overall change in the ongoing pattern across
Central Indiana through Tonight. Forecast soundings maintain a very
dry column with subsidence. Models suggest the surface ridging to
the north to drift southward today and tonight. This will again
enhance the ongoing subsidence.  The previously mentioned tropical
system to the southeast will begin to advance tonight west today and
tonight, but will not impact or reach Central Indiana today or
tonight. This systems impact by midweek may only amount to a few
clouds.

Thus overall, another sunny day and clear night will be expected.
With little change in the overall air mass, highs in the upper 80s
and lows near 60 will be expected, quite similar to ongoing
persistence.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Quiet weather conditions are expected to continue through much of
the extended due to a stagnant upper level pattern. The stagnant
pattern is keeping the region under the influence of upper level
ridging and surface high pressure which will greatly limit any
potential for measurable precipitation.

One interesting feature to watch is Potential Tropical Cyclone 8
currently off the coast of the Carolinas. Mean flow from upper
ridging centered over the Northeast should help the disturbance
drift northwest towards southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic
possibly bringing some minor impacts to the forecast this week.
Precipitation looks unlikely due to moisture getting wrung out from
the Appalachians and having to fight with subsidence induced dry air
over central Indiana. However, an increase in clouds is expected
Tuesday-Thursday from the approaching vort max. Look for slightly
cooler highs during this period, mainly over eastern portions of the
area where the greatest cloud cover should be. A few stray showers
cannot be completely ruled out around midweek just yet, but lack of
support in model guidance leads to very low confidence.

By late this week, upper level ridging amplifies over the eastern
CONUS leading to less cloud cover and a slight warm up. Large scale
subsidence will allow dry conditions to persist with no rain in
sight exacerbating the drought. Temperatures are generally going to
be in the 80s this week. The warmest days should be late week when
the upper ridge amplifies.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1016 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Impacts:

- None

 Discussion:

A stagnant Rex Block and a very dry column will lead to continued VFR
flying conditions with little or no cloud cover.

Winds will be from the east less than 10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 930 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The dry conditions and trends suggest the MinRH will fall to around
25 to 30% this afternoon as the fuel moisture drops below 8%. That
said, 20 foot winds are only expected to peak at 5 to 8 knots. So,
although there is a concern for fires to pop up but wildfire spread
is not a huge concern. Conditions will be similar Tuesday afternoon
regarding fire danger.

Some municipalities in central Indiana have activated a burn ban.
Exercise caution if burning today as fire weather conditions will
remain enhanced.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...MK
FIRE WEATHER...MK