288
FXUS63 KIWX 270205
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1004 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and dry conditions expected on Thursday.

- Additional round of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday
night and Saturday. Cool and dry conditions return for the second
half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon
as a stalled frontal boundary becomes activated as a cold front
thanks to a midlevel shortwave pivoting through the Great Lakes. Hi
resolution guidance has this clearing our CWA from NW to SE by 6pm
EDT this evening. Lightning, heavy downpours leading to localized
flooding, gusty winds to 40mph, and small hail will be possible with
the heavier cores.

A very pleasant day looks to be on tap tomorrow as we`ll be dry with
afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in the 50s.
Enough said!

Next chance for precipitation arrives Friday night into Saturday.
The ingredients (SBCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-
 40kts) look to be there for the possibility of severe weather
during the afternoon on Saturday; however, some timing differences
of these ingredients and the possible impacts from earlier
convection precluded confidence for probabilities to be included on
the Day 4 lookout. Keep an eye out for future updates over the next
couple of days to see if these align. Regardless of severity,
showers and thunderstorms are more than likely Friday night through
Saturday. If you need to pick a day with better weather for outdoor
activities, Sunday will be the choice with cool temperatures (highs
in the low/mid 70s) and no precipitation. The caveat is if you are
swimming in Lake Michigan, take the advise of local lifeguards as
post- frontal northerly winds may lead to hazardous surf-zone
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Dry advection takes place tonight and Thursday with dew points in
the 60s reaching the low to mid 50s by Thursday morning. NAM Bufkit
soundings do indicate that temperatures may be able to fall back to
within 3 to 5 degrees of the dew point, but it`ll be the wind
increasing to above 5 kts that will likely keep fog formation at
bay. Currently model and mos guidance keeps VFR conditions around,
but future forecasters will want to check for stratus formation
should enough moisture be retained overnight. Otherwise, expect only
a few clouds around during the day Thursday as surface high pressure
moves by just to the north. This evolution will allow primarily
north winds through the period, but FWA starts westerly ahead of the
high.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 AM CDT Thursday through
Thursday afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM EDT Thursday through
Thursday afternoon for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for
LMZ043-     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Roller