Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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802 FXUS63 KIWX 150638 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 238 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and primarily dry conditions will persist this week. - Very low humidity values are expected this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Care should be taken with any fires. - There is a low chance of rain Wednesday, mainly east of Interstate 69. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Latest IR and water vapor satellite imagery shows the remnant circulation of Francine and associated moisture plume increasingly stretched to the southwest and west of our area. Exceptionally dry/stable/subsident airmass still noted in our area per KILN and KDTX upper air soundings. Even clouds are remaining generally west of our area and expect this to continue through Mon. Slight uptick in surface dewpoints noted yesterday will be replaced by drier air steadily advecting back into our area. This is especially true for Monday when dewpoints likely drop into the 40s. This raises some fire wx concerns given afternoon RH values below 30 percent and recent lack of rainfall. However, wind gusts will remain below 15 kts which is well below red flag criteria and 10-hour fuels remain relatively moist. Highs today and Monday will remain very similar to previous days with generally upper 80s. Forecast confidence remains low for the middle of the week concerning the northwest extent of tropical system expected to develop off the Carolina coast in the next 2 days. Several deterministic models (most notably the GFS) suggest a stronger western CONUS upper low will help pull the remnant circulation and associated theta-e plume far enough northwest to support SCT showers in our CWA. Latest NBM finally introducing some low chance PoP`s for Wed. If model trends continue we may need to increase those PoP`s considerably but still enough spread to hold with low chances for now. Any rain will be light however and unlikely to have any meaningful impact on drought conditions. Temps will drop slightly during this period given increased cloud cover and slightly cooler profiles. Still anticipate primarily low/mid 80s though. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1137 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The large scale subsidence associated with a large 591 decameter high over the region will prevent nearly all clouds from forming during this TAF period (although a few high-based flattened cu are possible during the afternoon at the base of the subsidence inversion). Otherwise, low level east flow will persist with east to east/southeast winds around or under 10 kts. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...Skipper