495
FXUS63 KIWX 050442
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1242 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely today. Some of these
  storms may be strong to locally severe, particularly across
  northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio Wednesday afternoon.

- Turning cooler starting Thursday with passing showers at
  times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Warm afternoon on tap today as riding over the midwest leads to
upper level height increases. Temperatures will top out in the
mid to upper 80s. A couple of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this evening along the eastern flank of a slow moving
surface low / MCV currently over northeast Missouri. However,
better upper-level support arrives overnight into Wednesday
morning out ahead of a mid- level trough that is currently
moving out of the Central Plains. Precipitation chances (60-80%)
will be favored along the western half of the CWA. By late
morning and through the remainder of the afternoon hours, storms
will increase in intensity as they advance east out ahead and
along a cold front marching across the area. Instability and
synoptic support will be favorable, however marginal bulk shear
(around 25kt) and meager mid-level lapse rates will preclude any
bigger concern. Nevertheless, some strong to marginally severe
wind gusts will be possible due to steep low-level lapse rates,
particularly over NE Indiana and NW Ohio.

A prolonged pattern shift will round out the remainder of the
forecast period as an upper-level low meanders over the Great
Lakes region. Cooler temperatures and low rain shower chances
(10-20%) each day. Fortunately, no significant weather episode
is expected through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Scattered convection, associated with an upper level
disturbance, will lift through the KSBN vicinity later tonight
with brief vis/cig restrictions possible. A few showers could
clip KFWA toward daybreak, though chances remain on the low
side. A cold front then swings through KSBN midday, and KFWA
this afternoon, with additional rounds of showers/storms
anticipated along it. Mainly VFR, though MVFR ceilings may
settle in for a time later this morning, mainly at KSBN.
VFR/dry otherwise post frontal into Wednesday night.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Steinwedel