204
FXUS63 KIWX 301710
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
110 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and tranquil through Friday with highs in the 70s and
  lows tonight in the 40s.

- The next chance of rain arrives on Saturday. Thunderstorms
  are possible but severe weather is not expected.

- Typical summer pattern heading into next week with warm
  conditions and periodic chances for scattered showers and
  storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

High amplitude/short wavelength ridge will bring a welcome, albeit
brief, return to dry/quiet weather today and Friday. There is one
last trough rotating through the Lower Great Lakes today but
northerly flow has advected a much drier and more stable airmass
into the region and no precip is expected. Even clouds will be
difficult in this airmass and expect mostly sunny skies to add a few
degrees to afternoon highs compared to yesterday, particularly in the
NW. Winds remain light and variable through tonight with mostly
clear skies yielding lows in the 40s once again. Ridge axis passes
to our east on Friday and winds slowly become more southerly with
some weak WAA. This will push highs into the mid/upper 70s on Fri.

Another weak southern stream wave will eject into the Ohio Valley on
Sat and bring our next chance for rain. Moderate CVA and moisture
advection on a 50 kt LLJ will support numerous showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms. Warm temps aloft and early arrival of
clouds/prefrontal precip will substantially limit the instability
though and severe storms are not currently expected. Forecast
confidence decreases heading into next week as sensible weather will
be driven by small-scale features difficult to resolve this far out.
Suspect Sunday will end up primarily dry though still plenty of
ensemble guidance to support chance PoP`s. Forecast will trend
warmer through the middle of next week as broad ridging develops
over the eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A broad low level anticyclone will continue to be the dominant
feature across the region into Friday. Embedded in this larger
scale anticyclone is a weak inverted low level trough that has
been the focus of IFR/LIFR cigs just west of KFWA this morning
into this afternoon. Diurnal mixing has gradually improved these
cigs to above 2k feet, and remaining primarily west of KFWA.
Would expect any MVFR conditions to be short-lived at KFWA
through 19Z or 20Z. Otherwise, light northeast winds may back to
the north at KSBN later this afternoon as a weak lake breeze
forms. Light winds tonight become light southerly Friday
afternoon between 5 and 10 knots. After diurnal low level clouds
diminish this evening, some low coverage high clouds are
expected on Friday with VFR conditions expected.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Marsili