427
FXUS63 KIWX 291746
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
146 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are possible again today, mainly east of
  Highway 31. Severe weather is not expected but isolated small
  hail may be possible.

- Dry and pleasant weather is expected Thursday and Friday but
  more rain returns Saturday.

- Highs around 70 will slowly climb into the 80s by early next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Upper low continues to shift east of the area with a diminishing
area of showers remaining over portions of NW Ohio. Any
lightning has been confined to the Toledo area thus far, so
thunder mention has been reduced to slgt chc .

As for this afternoon. CAMs continue to show some re-
development of showers (isolated storm) as pockets of clearing
occur which allow for steepening lapse rates under the the back
edge of the
-20 C 500 mb temps. Do not expect the coverage or intensity of
 storms that was observed yesterday but still enough threat to
 maintain the slgt chc mention into the afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Yet another robust midlevel vort max noted on morning water
vapor imagery spinning over our CWA. This feature and the
associated low level convergence is maintaining some light-
moderate rain across the area that will pinwheel south through
the early morning as the primary wave dives southeast. Moist
cyclonic flow will continue through much of the day though and
in concert with cool temps aloft/modest instability will support
another round of showers and isolated storms this afternoon.
The best chances will be in our eastern half. Weak shear and low
instability will preclude severe storms but once again can`t
entirely rule out some small hail in any robust cores that
manage to develop given cold temps aloft. This activity is
expected to taper off quickly this evening with the loss of
daytime heating and lack of any appreciable forcing. Anticipate
dry conditions everywhere by 03Z. Northerly flow/weak CAA and a
fair amount of clouds will yield highs a few degrees cooler than
yesterday...likely struggling to reach into the 70s. Lows
tonight will drop into the mid/upper 40s given light N/NE winds
and clearing skies.

One more shortwave trough swings through the lower Lakes on Thu but
largely misses our CWA to the NE. Dry air advection pushes surface
dewpoints into the 30s and the much more stable environment will
prevent any precip, even clouds will be sparse. Nearly full sun is
expected and highs should climb back into the low/mid 70s. Overall a
very beautiful day. This will continue into Fri with even warmer
temps (mid/upper 70s) as low level winds become more southerly.

00Z models continue to trend slower with the next weak trough
ejecting out of the southwest CONUS, now slated to arrive late Sat.
More favorable diurnal timing raises the chances for convection and
heavier/more widespread rain but severe chances still appear very
low given lackluster moisture return and overall weak instability
due to warmer temps aloft. Dry conditions are currently expected on
Sun and possibly into Mon but forecast confidence decreases
substantially during this period given lack of any large-scale
features to latch onto. Do expect slowly increasing temperatures
through early next week though given more zonal flow and broad
ridging at times.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

A stronger upper level vort max has shifted southeast of the
area which has resulted in diminishment of morning showers.
However, lingering mid level cold pool roughly east of
Interstate 69 will provide some weak diurnally enhanced
instability for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
With northern Indiana on western fringe of better upper cyclonic
flow, a weak associated inverted sfc trough axis may also help
to focus showers and a few storms in KFWA vicinity this
afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, skies clear tonight as
low level anticyclone settles into the area. Will omit fog
mention at this time given low level dry air advection, but some
patchy fog is a possibility, particularly for outlying areas.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Marsili