Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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049 FXUS63 KIWX 290656 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 256 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms are possible again today, mainly east of Highway 31. Severe weather is not expected but isolated small hail may be possible. - Dry and pleasant weather is expected Thursday and Friday but more rain returns Saturday. - Highs around 70 will slowly climb into the 80s by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Yet another robust midlevel vort max noted on morning water vapor imagery spinning over our CWA. This feature and the associated low level convergence is maintaining some light- moderate rain across the area that will pinwheel south through the early morning as the primary wave dives southeast. Moist cyclonic flow will continue through much of the day though and in concert with cool temps aloft/modest instability will support another round of showers and isolated storms this afternoon. The best chances will be in our eastern half. Weak shear and low instability will preclude severe storms but once again can`t entirely rule out some small hail in any robust cores that manage to develop given cold temps aloft. This activity is expected to taper off quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating and lack of any appreciable forcing. Anticipate dry conditions everywhere by 03Z. Northerly flow/weak CAA and a fair amount of clouds will yield highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday...likely struggling to reach into the 70s. Lows tonight will drop into the mid/upper 40s given light N/NE winds and clearing skies. One more shortwave trough swings through the lower Lakes on Thu but largely misses our CWA to the NE. Dry air advection pushes surface dewpoints into the 30s and the much more stable environment will prevent any precip, even clouds will be sparse. Nearly full sun is expected and highs should climb back into the low/mid 70s. Overall a very beautiful day. This will continue into Fri with even warmer temps (mid/upper 70s) as low level winds become more southerly. 00Z models continue to trend slower with the next weak trough ejecting out of the southwest CONUS, now slated to arrive late Sat. More favorable diurnal timing raises the chances for convection and heavier/more widespread rain but severe chances still appear very low given lackluster moisture return and overall weak instability due to warmer temps aloft. Dry conditions are currently expected on Sun and possibly into Mon but forecast confidence decreases substantially during this period given lack of any large-scale features to latch onto. Do expect slowly increasing temperatures through early next week though given more zonal flow and broad ridging at times. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 201 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Predominantly MVFR to VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites this period. The only exception will be this morning where we have some IFR ceilings/visibilities associated with the cold front. Expect we could see some 700 ft ceilings (as there are upstream) and visibilities around 2-3 miles at times. Once the front passes, expect improvement to VFR (11/12z KSBN, then more like 15z at KFWA). && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...MCD