Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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353 FXUS63 KIWX 170932 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 532 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions will persist through Saturday with highs in the 80s. - Very low humidity values are expected this afternoon. Care should be taken with any fires. - The next chance of rain is not until early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The disturbance off the Carolina Coast failed to organize into an actual tropical cyclone and has now moved onshore. Vertically stacked low pressure is now expected to remain nearly stationary over the next 24-48 hours before slowly drifting NE and steadily weakening. Strong mid/upper ridge which has kept our region warm and dry for many days will hold firm over the Great Lakes and no precip is expected for the rest of this week. High temps will remain similar to previous days though perhaps just a degree or two cooler today and tomorrow given some very subtle CAA in easterly flow and increased cloud cover over our eastern zones. Western zones may still climb into the upper 80s but central and eastern zones will likely remain in the low/mid 80s. Surface dewpoints will once again crash into the low/mid 40s today given deep mixing and extremely dry airmass in place per KILN and KDTX soundings. RH values around 20 percent are possible again today though slightly cooler temps will help. Slight uptick in low level moisture for our central/eastern zones will keep RH`s above 30 percent on Wed. While winds remain light, fine fuels are becoming very dry and care should be taken with any outdoor burning. Highs near 90F likely once again Thu-Sat as upper low exits and ridge strengthens once again. 00Z models continue to suggest an upper low will eject out of the southwest CONUS early next week and perhaps finally weaken behemoth ridge enough to support (some) chance for rain. Models remain in large disagreement regarding exact strength/track of upper low and resultant rain chances though. Chances don`t appear great given recent dry conditions and lack of substantive forcing in our area but there is still plenty of time for changes. Will hold with slight chance PoP`s late Sun/Mon. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 524 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 An upper level blocking pattern will persist over the region and will prevent clouds from forming other than some high clouds over northeast Indiana. The upper level ridge along the Atlantic Seaboard continued to extend well inland into the Upper Great Lakes region where a very dry airmass has remained for days. At the surface, a high pressure area was centered along the east coast with a ridge extending all of the way to the forecast area. This system will persist over the area and be accompanied by light east flow over northern Indiana. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...Skipper