302
FXUS63 KIWX 262333
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
733 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon,
  mainly south of US-24.

- Mild and dry conditions expected on Thursday.

- Additional round of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday
  night and Saturday. Cool and dry conditions return for the
  second half of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this
afternoon as a stalled frontal boundary becomes activated as a
cold front thanks to a midlevel shortwave pivoting through the
Great Lakes. Hi resolution guidance has this clearing our CWA
from NW to SE by 6pm EDT this evening. Lightning, heavy
downpours leading to localized flooding, gusty winds to 40mph,
and small hail will be possible with the heavier cores.

A very pleasant day looks to be on tap tomorrow as we`ll be dry
with afternoon highs in the mid/upper 70s and dewpoints in the
50s. Enough said!

Next chance for precipitation arrives Friday night into
Saturday. The ingredients (SBCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg and 0-6km
bulk shear of 30- 40kts) look to be there for the possibility of
severe weather during the afternoon on Saturday; however, some
timing differences of these ingredients and the possible
impacts from earlier convection precluded confidence for
probabilities to be included on the Day 4 lookout. Keep an eye
out for future updates over the next couple of days to see if
these align. Regardless of severity, showers and thunderstorms
are more than likely Friday night through Saturday. If you need
to pick a day with better weather for outdoor activities, Sunday
will be the choice with cool temperatures (highs in the low/mid
70s) and no precipitation. The caveat is if you are swimming in
Lake Michigan, take the advise of local lifeguards as post-
frontal northerly winds may lead to hazardous surf-zone
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Dry advection takes place tonight and Thursday with dew points in
the 60s reaching the low to mid 50s by Thursday morning. NAM Bufkit
soundings do indicate that temperatures may be able to fall back to
within 3 to 5 degrees of the dew point, but it`ll be the wind
increasing to above 5 kts that will likely keep fog formation at
bay. Currently model and mos guidance keeps VFR conditions around,
but future forecasters will want to check for stratus formation
should enough moisture be retained overnight. Otherwise, expect only
a few clouds around during the day Thursday as surface high pressure
moves by just to the north. This evolution will allow primarily
north winds through the period, but FWA starts westerly ahead of the
high.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 AM CDT Thursday through
     Thursday afternoon for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM EDT Thursday through
     Thursday afternoon for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Roller