Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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320 FXUS64 KJAN 192351 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 651 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The governing feature driving the overall pattern through Sunday will be the stout mid/upper level ridge over the Ohio and TN valleys. While not immediately contributing to hot conditions for us, it will help drive deep layer dry air from the east which will limit precip chances into this weekend. Low level flow will be mainly out of the SE and E during this time which is typically not supportive of higher heat. By Sat-Sun, this ridge aloft will begin to break down which will get replaced by more of a NW/N flow regime for early/mid part of next week along with a increase in deep layer moisture resulting in better precip chances for Mon- Wed. Sensible weather elements: Look for more sunshine each day and ultimately warmer MaxT. Friday we will see more mid 90s and then more of mid/upper 90s for the weekend. This higher heat occurs as we see more influences from the ridge and as it breaks down. Lower level flow will shift and have more of a westerly component starting around Sunday with more of this low level flow regime established for Mon-Tue. This is a regime that supports hotter type temps and the guidance is picking up on this. Additionally, better moisture will steadily move in and will result in higher Td for early week. So the combination of hot temps and increasing humidity will result in higher Heat Indices (HI). Data supports HI in the 100-105 range for Sunday with an up tick in HI values for Mon-Tue in the 105-110 range. Due to this and the fact we`ve seen a consistent signal, will add graphics and messaging to cover this threat for those periods. I mentioned the increase in precip potential for Mon-Wed, this is due to lowering mid/upper level heights as more of a weakness develops while the earlier noted ridge establishes itself more to our west. Not really expecting any strong storms, but will need to watch parameters a bit as warm mid level temps will cool some by Tue to help steepen lapse rates some. Additionally, anytime we see mid/upper 90s with higher Td and then get convection, there`s always more cape and thus some potential for strong/severe storms as a few more favorable ingredients that end up in-place. By next week, better rain chances will be welcome and likely needed as rainfall deficits will be adding up. /CME/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Light SHRA are psbl the next hour for southern TAF sites but low enough coverage to not add this TAF cycle. Expect VFR flight categories & SCT-BKN mid-high stratus, with light easterly wind, up to 10mph sustained & gusts briefly exceeding 15mph Thurs aftn, through the next 24 hours. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 91 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 69 92 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 72 92 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 71 92 72 94 / 20 0 0 10 Natchez 71 92 70 93 / 10 0 0 10 Greenville 72 94 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 71 93 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CME/DC