Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
962 FXUS64 KJAN 191527 AAB AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1027 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1020 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Quiet morning across the area with increasing heights in the mid/upper levels due to a sizable ridge building across the southern/central plains. Flow around this ridge will push southward deep layer dry air and a ribbon of close to 1.0 PWs traversing the area. Conditions will continue to warm as we peak in the 89-92 range which is roughly 5 degrees abv the norm. Forecast elements are on track and only made minor tweaks with newer guidance. /CME/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Today and Tonight: Patchy fog is still possible toward sunrise but its coverage will be less this morning. It will be continued dry with warmer than normal temperatures through tonight. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a mid level ridge just to our northwest emanating from a 592dam high centered over southern Texas. This ridge was still resulting in northwest flow aloft across our region that was also continuing the feed of drier air aloft into our CWA. Latest surface analysis still had a weak surface ridge nosing into our CWA from the northeast. This surface ridge will change little through the forecast period and will serve to keep the Gulf closed. Ridging surface and aloft will remain dominant over our region through tonight. This will help temperatures top out warmer than normal and in the lower 90s this afternoon and hold temperatures warmer than normal Friday morning; in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. /22/ Friday through next Wednesday...High pressure, both aloft and at the surface, will reside across the forecast area through the majority of the forecast period. This will result in quiet weather across the region through at least the upcoming weekend and beginning of next week. Humid conditions will persist with dew points generally mixing into the upper 60s to around 70 each day, as afternoon highs and overnight lows remain at to just above normal for this time of year. As we move into the middle of next week, rain chances do return to the forecast, particularly on Wednesday. A trough is currently advertised to shift east into and through the region during this time. This scenario will cause a frontal boundary to likewise shift into and through the forecast area, bringing isolated to scattered showers along with it Wednesday into Wednesday night. /19/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Any cig/vsby restrictions wl be very brief and VFR conditions and a light wind is expected to prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 90 67 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 91 67 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 92 69 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 90 68 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 91 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 91 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CME/22/19