Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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913 FXUS64 KJAN 200118 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 818 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 818 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Gulf Coast region remains on the eastern periphery of ridging over the International Border, locking in dry northwest flow, per 1.2-1.6 inch precipitable water (PWs) observed in regional 00Z soundings & GOES East total PWs. Sfc ridge parked over the area will favor light to calm conditions overnight & another night of favorable radiational cooling environment. Lows will be seasonably warm (64-69F) overnight. Low-level boundary layer continues to dry, so fog potential remains too low confidence to add any mention. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Tonight through Sunday...Overall forecast will remain quiet. The forecast and conditions will be basically persistence. The roughly 5 degree above normal Max/MinT will persist through this period. PWs will be on the lower side and lower level moisture looks to a bit lower moving into the weekend resulting is less fair wx cu each afternoon. Monday into Thursday...starting the work week we will see the controlling ridge break down and become more flat as we see energy (troughing) move through the Rockies and into the mid MS River Valley. This will play a role in getting return flow and increasing moisture to make its way back into the area as deeper S/SE flow gets going. There will also be a weak front that tries to approach the region from the north, but there are indications that it won`t make it into the area. Any rain chance will be on the low side (20-30%) starting as early as Tue and lingering into Thu. Conditions will continue to be roughly 5 degrees warmer for Max/Min T with some trend toward near seasonal by the end of the forecast. Some focus is on the latter week and into next weekend and around any potential tropical development. Overall, looking at the western Carribean and southern Gulf in the Day 6 to 9 periods (Wed-Sat) for potential development. Nearly all the global models and their ensembles show something developing. However, variability exists in timing of development along with location/track variations. Ensemble consensus favors more of a central conus trough (strength varies) and would help keep any tropical entity more on the E side of the Gulf. Another scenario for a pattern shows more ridging in the central conus due to a faster trough and this would favor a more SW/W Gulf. As always, run to run trends in the governing pattern will be the key and will need to watch how any favored regime develops or evolves as we get closer. /CME/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Quiet & dry TAF period expected the next 24 hours. Some fair weather cumulus across the region around the 6-8kft range will dissipate in the next hour, with clear skies/VFR flight categories expected. Winds will be near calm tonight & light northerly wind Friday, generally less than 10mph sustained. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 67 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 67 93 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 67 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 69 93 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 69 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 66 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 67 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/CME/DC